TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$407,952
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$336,187

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $407,952 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x265f…a448backed Yes2c27,227$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.1228534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes1c26,736$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.531,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes2c11,435$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.6356817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes2c10,664$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.775122.2%167 W · 584 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes7c9,296$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.3424115.4%37 W · 204 L+0.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-31.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes6c6,561$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.993408.2%28 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c5,613$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.342,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes10c5,054$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.1938811.9%46 W · 342 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+51.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes0c4,966$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.271,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes8c4,879$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.3254122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes7c4,361$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.1318722.5%42 W · 145 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes1c4,000$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.834215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes8c3,816$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.971238.1%10 W · 113 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-79.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes9c3,526$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.578811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes4c3,517$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.0510610.4%11 W · 95 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-54.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf545…305bbacked Yes3c3,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-15.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b42…229ebacked Yes2c2,912$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2310322.3%23 W · 80 L+8.6wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+59.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes2c2,710$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.921,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcf5…829cbacked Yes7c2,463$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.464010%4 W · 36 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9ef…4df2backed Yes9c2,401$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.814216.7%7 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2263…1d7cbacked Yes14c2,113$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes4c1,992$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1462412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes1c1,960$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.516417.1%28 W · 136 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb3…f8d6backed Yes7c1,887$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.023828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+32.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa79d…e7a6backed Yes3c1,800$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c9…4c60backed Yes8c1,792$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508742.5%37 W · 50 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes4c1,750$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.082859.1%26 W · 259 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Yes7c1,738$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.0823321%49 W · 184 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes3c1,731$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9819118.8%36 W · 155 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d68…1474backed Yes9c1,650$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1507525.3%19 W · 56 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes8c1,631$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.272,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes7c1,544$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10241718%75 W · 342 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes2c1,410$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7566222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x20d1…fe63backed Yes14c1,407$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.127821.8%17 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4f07…3f68backed Yes7c1,400$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9711721.4%25 W · 92 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick23cpaid+16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes8c1,297$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.736915.5%38 W · 653 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes9c1,141$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.511,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes8c1,109$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.451356.7%9 W · 126 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick5cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d38…d383backed Yes9c1,000$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.77121.1%15 W · 56 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick19cpaid+13%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes8c990$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.711918.5%22 W · 97 L+3.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid-19.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x362a…48aebacked Yes4c980.75$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.551020%2 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+49.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes2c964.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.161,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes10c945.08$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.2233231%103 W · 229 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0fd…434abacked Yes12c930.09$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.754816.7%8 W · 40 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-3.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes4c918.77$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9588017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes3c917.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.61539.4%5 W · 48 L+0.2wins0.00per pick9cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes5c799.97$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.646521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f14…905dbacked Yes5c789.31$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404924.5%12 W · 37 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+64%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9278…8a12backed Yes8c750$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604619.6%9 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-25.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf667…2abcbacked Yes6c726.12$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0112619%24 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick17cpaid-25.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed44…c0a7backed Yes7c714.29$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes3c701.05$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.941017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9804…d512backed Yes8c679.99$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.44920.4%10 W · 39 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eaa…3feabacked Yes6c679.93$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.64025%10 W · 30 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-36.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82f7…7c3bbacked Yes11c606.76$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.738528.2%24 W · 61 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dba…2737backed Yes3c599.03$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.522222.7%5 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c572.32$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.861,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb378…eaf6backed Yes11c562.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.45812.1%7 W · 51 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ed…cfc6backed Yes9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501030%3 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick22cpaid-5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x982a…f1b9backed Yes5c546.58$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27378.1%3 W · 34 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bf2…45bcbacked Yes4c538.8$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9410510.5%11 W · 94 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick9cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc120…55cabacked Yes3c536.34$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac32…6e3bbacked Yes10c524.18$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504920.4%10 W · 39 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick14cpaid+5.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes9c516.57$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3588018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes9c516.36$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.7846521.3%99 W · 366 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes6c514$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.679811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf984…24cebacked Yes7c505.25$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.377320.5%15 W · 58 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes6c500$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325529.1%16 W · 39 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid+10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4b7…af8fbacked Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30229.1%2 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1536018.6%67 W · 293 L+0.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5045…4b5bbacked Yes11c499.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-40.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes7c499.98$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354869.7%47 W · 439 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x700b…652dbacked Yes12c456.22$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.452630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-21%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb493…edc6backed Yes5c450$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes4c446.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.34345.1%22 W · 412 L-13.5wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-33%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef62…d6eabacked Yes5c443.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x955d…4619backed Yes5c440.44$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf68…fa74backed Yes9c418.14$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3940%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes7c410$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1721222.2%47 W · 165 L+0.5wins0.00per pick22cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6800…587bbacked Yes10c404.04$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4819…c342backed Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0600…417abacked Yes7c399.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa53d…9710backed Yes5c399.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick38cpaid+98.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2c68…878dbacked Yes11c396.68$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-24.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x84dc…7367backed Yes13c382.77$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493915.4%6 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-24.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x563c…0dbfbacked Yes12c379.1$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.48616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-36.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2c7b…f109backed Yes8c347$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6916…b44bbacked Yes6c334.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202927.6%8 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x665e…5a40backed Yes9c333.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301942.1%8 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x09b2…a32abacked Yes5c310.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-19.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dbb…3ad8backed Yes5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15248.3%2 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0272…2e95backed Yes5c300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.91010%1 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick26cpaid-75%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes5c293$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.652595.4%14 W · 245 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc164…efb9backed Yes11c291.39$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.658337.3%31 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d51…8b8ebacked Yes6c290.86$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.61020%2 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-59.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes4c288.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3522327.8%62 W · 161 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-20.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes7c285.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2012429%36 W · 88 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+110.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa736…d04fbacked Yes4c263.19$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+29%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x189d…6b22backed Yes10c249.92$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-67.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes8c247.14$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2114216.9%24 W · 118 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.