Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d06c8dd4035df66f0f8cd1605358c4553614eb5d06f9e868eeaf9a646766108
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $407,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $336,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $407,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 2c | 27,227$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630.12 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 26,736$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.53 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 2c | 11,435$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.63 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 2c | 10,664$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.7 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 7c | 9,296$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.34 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 6c | 6,561$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.99 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 5,613$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.34 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 10c | 5,054$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.19 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 0c | 4,966$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 8c | 4,879$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.32 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 7c | 4,361$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.13 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.8 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 8c | 3,816$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.97 | 123 | 8.1%10 W · 113 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 3,526$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.5 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…8331backed Yes | 4c | 3,517$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.05 | 106 | 10.4%11 W · 95 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf545…305bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…229ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,912$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.23 | 103 | 22.3%23 W · 80 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 2c | 2,710$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf5…829cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,463$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.46 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…4df2backed Yes | 9c | 2,401$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.81 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2263…1d7cbacked Yes | 14c | 2,113$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 4c | 1,992$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.14 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes | 1c | 1,960$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 164 | 17.1%28 W · 136 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb3…f8d6backed Yes | 7c | 1,887$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.02 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa79d…e7a6backed Yes | 3c | 1,800$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…4c60backed Yes | 8c | 1,792$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,750$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 7c | 1,738$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.08 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2692…38e2backed Yes | 3c | 1,731$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 191 | 18.8%36 W · 155 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d68…1474backed Yes | 9c | 1,650$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 1,631$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.27 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 7c | 1,544$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 2c | 1,410$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…fe63backed Yes | 14c | 1,407$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.12 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f07…3f68backed Yes | 7c | 1,400$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 1,297$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.73 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 9c | 1,141$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.51 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 8c | 1,109$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.45 | 135 | 6.7%9 W · 126 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…d383backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.7 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 8c | 990$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362a…48aebacked Yes | 4c | 980.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 2c | 964.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 10c | 945.08$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.22 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fd…434abacked Yes | 12c | 930.09$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.75 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 4c | 918.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes | 3c | 917.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 5c | 799.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f14…905dbacked Yes | 5c | 789.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +64%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9278…8a12backed Yes | 8c | 750$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…2abcbacked Yes | 6c | 726.12$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 126 | 19%24 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…c0a7backed Yes | 7c | 714.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 3c | 701.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9804…d512backed Yes | 8c | 679.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eaa…3feabacked Yes | 6c | 679.93$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f7…7c3bbacked Yes | 11c | 606.76$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.73 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dba…2737backed Yes | 3c | 599.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +18%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 572.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb378…eaf6backed Yes | 11c | 562.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ed…cfc6backed Yes | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x982a…f1b9backed Yes | 5c | 546.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf2…45bcbacked Yes | 4c | 538.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 105 | 10.5%11 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…55cabacked Yes | 3c | 536.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac32…6e3bbacked Yes | 10c | 524.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 20.4%10 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 9c | 516.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.35 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 9c | 516.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 6c | 514$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Yes | 7c | 505.25$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 73 | 20.5%15 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes | 6c | 500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4b7…af8fbacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5045…4b5bbacked Yes | 11c | 499.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 7c | 499.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…652dbacked Yes | 12c | 456.22$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb493…edc6backed Yes | 5c | 450$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 446.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…d6eabacked Yes | 5c | 443.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x955d…4619backed Yes | 5c | 440.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf68…fa74backed Yes | 9c | 418.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 7c | 410$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6800…587bbacked Yes | 10c | 404.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4819…c342backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0600…417abacked Yes | 7c | 399.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53d…9710backed Yes | 5c | 399.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 38cpaid | +98.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2c68…878dbacked Yes | 11c | 396.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…7367backed Yes | 13c | 382.77$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563c…0dbfbacked Yes | 12c | 379.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…f109backed Yes | 8c | 347$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…b44bbacked Yes | 6c | 334.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x665e…5a40backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…a32abacked Yes | 5c | 310.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…3ad8backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0272…2e95backed Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes | 5c | 293$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 259 | 5.4%14 W · 245 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…efb9backed Yes | 11c | 291.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d51…8b8ebacked Yes | 6c | 290.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b69…16d4backed Yes | 4c | 288.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 223 | 27.8%62 W · 161 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 124 | 29%36 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa736…d04fbacked Yes | 4c | 263.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…6b22backed Yes | 10c | 249.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b5b…4a17backed Yes | 8c | 247.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 142 | 16.9%24 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.