Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x03c773a68bddad909890cac43cadd96bc630428a530db8a6c3531eb693bb90d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $243,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $243,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 1c | 31,978$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.77 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 1c | 25,810$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.25 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 2c | 24,908$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.17 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 14,775$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 169 | 0%0 W · 169 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,653$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 0c | 7,550$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 2c | 4,091$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.29 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 3,699$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 3c | 2,728$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.39 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…1a63backed Yes | 1c | 2,706$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 1c | 2,505$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 3c | 2,314$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 123 | 8.1%10 W · 113 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe37b…0e27backed Yes | 2c | 1,961$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10de…f022backed Yes | 2c | 1,905$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x894b…a174backed Yes | 1c | 1,680$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9278…8a12backed Yes | 2c | 1,671$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8690…ac15backed Yes | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 876.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 5c | 803.56$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ad…c3c9backed Yes | 4c | 771.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 4c | 770.38$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 3c | 712.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 7c | 700.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.69 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5045…4b5bbacked Yes | 19c | 699.99$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x565d…76f9backed Yes | 13c | 690.28$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0333…7d70backed Yes | 3c | 690$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…72d5backed Yes | 16c | 623.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb19…9a2abacked Yes | 13c | 607.46$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.07 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 18c | 600$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed Yes | 5c | 597.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 6c | 499.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 5c | 489.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…d383backed Yes | 6c | 405.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x299c…7462backed Yes | 14c | 350$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56fb…d610backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…3ad8backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 9c | 254.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 1,053 | 5.6%59 W · 994 L | +20.7wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 119 | 18.5%22 W · 97 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 135 | 6.7%9 W · 126 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 7c | 186.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 68 | 2.9%2 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x563c…0dbfbacked Yes | 10c | 125.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e66…0d3abacked Yes | 12c | 108.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 334 | 15.6%52 W · 282 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe532…28f2backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3d…1edfbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb23…00bcbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d7…95d0backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…3a8bbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x102d…c9afbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 77 | 13%10 W · 67 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 159 | 11.9%19 W · 140 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb8…889dbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cf5…1e1fbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c98…6f55backed Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 228 | 24.1%55 W · 173 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…9449backed Yes | 13c | 96.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…bfcabacked Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 137 | 17.5%24 W · 113 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 74.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e5…441dbacked Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454d…00e2backed Yes | 16c | 67.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe9…8706backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.