Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d529b7e7f1918338d10d26c921ad92c11b463bf44ce441158886867df967e3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $588,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $402,995
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $588,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 0c | 57,790$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.6 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4143…d67dbacked Yes | 0c | 34,628$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.26 | 212 | 20.3%43 W · 169 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +610.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 2c | 27,104$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.68 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…5d71backed Yes | 1c | 25,000$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.9 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5199…4d5fbacked Yes | 0c | 19,080$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 2c | 17,225$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.85 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Yes | 3c | 13,203$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.34 | 187 | 22.5%42 W · 145 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Yes | 1c | 10,402$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 54 | 16.7%9 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe5e…8054backed Yes | 1c | 9,941$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.6 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +151.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b3…25babacked Yes | 1c | 9,594$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.37 | 49 | 6.1%3 W · 46 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x518e…9311backed Yes | 1c | 9,380$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 3c | 8,550$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.8 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…01cbbacked Yes | 1c | 8,265$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d7…2305backed Yes | 1c | 8,179$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.05 | 184 | 24.5%45 W · 139 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes | 1c | 7,618$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.02 | 86 | 16.3%14 W · 72 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 3c | 7,118$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.11 | 123 | 8.1%10 W · 113 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 4c | 6,650$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.4 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 4c | 5,960$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.47 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5e…2a5cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,550$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…2f27backed Yes | 7c | 5,062$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.06 | 241 | 15.4%37 W · 204 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes | 1c | 5,058$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 218 | 18.3%40 W · 178 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Yes | 1c | 4,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.61 | 455 | 11.6%53 W · 402 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 1c | 4,438$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 4,438$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.52 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes | 2c | 4,282$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 227 | 18.5%42 W · 185 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1264…31e5backed Yes | 2c | 4,225$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.12 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0b…7341backed Yes | 7c | 4,109$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.47 | 340 | 8.2%28 W · 312 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db9…a43bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,555$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 238 | 19.3%46 W · 192 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e4…28b8backed Yes | 1c | 3,419$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 83 | 16.9%14 W · 69 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf667…2abcbacked Yes | 1c | 3,350$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 126 | 19%24 W · 102 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc201…eeb2backed Yes | 1c | 3,254$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 133 | 13.5%18 W · 115 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa47f…cf75backed Yes | 1c | 3,233$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 149 | 24.2%36 W · 113 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 2c | 3,066$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37b…0e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,562$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 64 | 17.2%11 W · 53 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e24…67d0backed Yes | 1c | 2,560$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,500$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c3…ed8fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,458$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1066…6075backed Yes | 1c | 2,400$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…229ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,269$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 103 | 22.3%23 W · 80 L | +8.6wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3f…a942backed No | 80c | 2,169$1,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,158$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca9c…7311backed Yes | 2c | 2,100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16be…23d9backed Yes | 2c | 2,057$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.36 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bfe…b127backed Yes | 1c | 1,757$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 99 | 25.3%25 W · 74 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb7…1e0dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,738$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,735$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d3…8e8fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,671$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 131 | 16.8%22 W · 109 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48ac…7784backed Yes | 2c | 1,627$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8519…cb6cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,582$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes | 4c | 1,568$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 388 | 11.9%46 W · 342 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 2c | 1,549$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.01 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 14c | 1,500$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.56 | 413 | 10.7%44 W · 369 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 1c | 1,483$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc01…3b2dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,430$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 9c | 1,394$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.71 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45be…ab8abacked Yes | 1c | 1,288$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 199 | 30.2%60 W · 139 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 1c | 1,248$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf85…9ba4backed Yes | 1c | 1,183$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc35a…b9f2backed Yes | 7c | 1,129$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.53 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes | 9c | 1,082$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 131 | 21.4%28 W · 103 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f1…3dccbacked Yes | 9c | 1,050$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa44d…7ea0backed Yes | 4c | 1,010$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26e2…1a63backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 999.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 797 | 11.3%90 W · 707 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc24a…fdbcbacked Yes | 2c | 999.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22ad…c3c9backed Yes | 4c | 982.95$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 42 | 9.5%4 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20d1…fe63backed Yes | 14c | 950.14$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.22 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 2c | 943.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 18.4%27 W · 120 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 7c | 901.52$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7766…b7f6backed Yes | 16c | 895.9$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.42 | 321 | 10%32 W · 289 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 1c | 859.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 835.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,625 | 1.9%31 W · 1,594 L | +14.5wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd21…3c10backed Yes | 2c | 833.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 80 | 21.3%17 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 813.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 434 | 5.1%22 W · 412 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdef7…217fbacked Yes | 22c | 800$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | +96%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5052…cf5cbacked Yes | 2c | 788.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0067…446fbacked Yes | 3c | 752.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfef7…8367backed Yes | 9c | 690.16$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 15c | 676.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.47 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes | 9c | 618.78$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 108 | 18.5%20 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb46e…7b2bbacked Yes | 3c | 612.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827d…b1f0backed Yes | 20c | 609.5$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.9 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbb…9a56backed Yes | 2c | 593.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…d383backed Yes | 13c | 545.27$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe553…e95dbacked Yes | 25c | 508.08$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Yes | 21c | 502.16$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 233 | 21%49 W · 184 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa548…5c71backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 16c | 499.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 360 | 18.6%67 W · 293 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee35…6c20backed Yes | 6c | 487.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 78 | 21.8%17 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x729a…92d8backed Yes | 20c | 450$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6916…b44bbacked Yes | 2c | 437.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 9c | 430$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…72d5backed Yes | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10de…f022backed Yes | 10c | 416.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ef…4df2backed Yes | 12c | 410.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 16.7%7 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 8c | 407.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 3c | 406.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.06 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…965fbacked Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf2…45bcbacked Yes | 5c | 399.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 10.5%11 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 13c | 371.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 24 to January 26, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.