TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,973
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$41,234

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,973 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes15c3,267$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.3135018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a18…364cbacked No70c1,232$861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.248946.1%41 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed Yes16c855.41$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.4385330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes5c689.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.11,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes30c660.72$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.5148331.3%151 W · 332 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+90.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8adf…48cdbacked Yes46c633.65$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.442931%9 W · 20 L-6.2wins-0.22per pick53cpaid-57.9%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No79c528.44$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.0786050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes20c519.58$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.8564021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2db…2263backed Yes19c500.01$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.8711126.1%29 W · 82 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa20c…451abacked Yes15c432.81$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.088016.3%13 W · 67 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-73.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed Yes20c364.15$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.611,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No79c343.16$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.951,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes14c334.44$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.736,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No80c311.37$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.075,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes6c280$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.73132.3%10 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa322…dd03backed Yes34c273.07$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.251526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes22c272.3$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8243525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No73c261.4$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.034,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No78c256.4$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.412,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc941…a0e8backed Yes20c240$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3320838%79 W · 129 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes17c200$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f55…4213backed Yes49c198.83$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.661637.5%6 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4611…3790backed Yes22c190.56$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.92319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-64.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes22c160.4$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6934319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes22c154.18$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9273927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd229…fcd6backed Yes17c150$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51,24216.7%207 W · 1,035 L-22.0wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xade8…652abacked Yes19c149.99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291625%4 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-42.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes13c138.84$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.416832.7%55 W · 113 L+8.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-13.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf306…2155backed Yes22c136.64$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305733.3%19 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c136.13$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.717,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked No80c135.84$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.229922.7%68 W · 231 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-40.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No80c134.38$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.883,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b11…2976backed Yes19c130$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.749941.7%208 W · 291 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf967…1adfbacked Yes20c125$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2531262.5%195 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes20c125$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes12c123.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.81,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x610b…e158backed Yes21c121.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256018.3%11 W · 49 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe84…20e0backed No78c118.68$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.115154.9%28 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x601d…0afdbacked Yes26c116.19$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.21175.9%1 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.19per pick25cpaid-81.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes22c115.65$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2514632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes27c114.37$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4133243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes20c113.93$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4717,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes21c113$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.861,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes22c112.87$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes19c104.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.452419.5%23 W · 218 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No80c101.96$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.391,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe01f…ff34backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.751,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9c6b…c053backed Yes21c99.63$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.941330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d84…4ff1backed No76c99.02$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0229558%171 W · 124 L-13.7wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x26ef…9808backed No79c97.3$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.239277.2%71 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick73cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes22c96.26$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9389544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes16c91.62$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.481679%15 W · 152 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-20.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9536…68f9backed Yes17c91.31$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.226121.3%13 W · 48 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+85.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91d9…141dbacked Yes17c90.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.431,25638.2%480 W · 776 L+53.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes19c90.72$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.881,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes27c83.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.834457%196 W · 148 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes18c83.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c55…a735backed Yes20c83.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.6240%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes18c81.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1513930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3837…c507backed Yes19c79.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510444.2%46 W · 58 L+0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes19c78.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.019,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d33…6be3backed Yes27c76.8$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7714236.6%52 W · 90 L-0.6wins0.00per pick37cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1230…8e43backed Yes15c75.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4615155.6%84 W · 67 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No79c73.98$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.771,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes22c72.97$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.021,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes15c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.671,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes22c66.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.975633.9%19 W · 37 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x483d…65f2backed No75c65.79$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.454344.2%19 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes20c65.73$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.426825%17 W · 51 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebee…7f68backed Yes31c65.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.179529.5%28 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes18c64.23$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5667633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9240…a7c7backed Yes52c63.74$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0644…05debacked Yes32c61.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.652445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes21c60.05$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.668335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed No75c50.18$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4831868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfa…1542backed Yes34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178239%32 W · 50 L-8.6wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3c69…4622backed No67c49.97$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4956265.5%368 W · 194 L+35.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+18.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes42c48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.162520%5 W · 20 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d20…bbcbbacked Yes33c47.39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.61333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked No49c45$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9531170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes51c39.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016924.3%41 W · 128 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea9…7927backed No72c34.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.728151.9%42 W · 39 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ced…6c85backed No74c33.54$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.722520%5 W · 20 L-4.8wins-0.19per pick39cpaid+48.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4d47…10b4backed No45c32.37$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.822344.8%100 W · 123 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc931…7d46backed No79c31.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.614158.2%82 W · 59 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No77c31.01$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.213,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cab…7489backed No78c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4710371.8%74 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No77c29.05$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5914745.6%67 W · 80 L-11.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-14.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xec8a…94b3backed Yes40c28.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41225%3 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No71c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.124,96168.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L+65.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc02…504dbacked No75c26.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.756365.1%41 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick70cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No66c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.58,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2042…643fbacked Yes53c24$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.69875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+62.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbf2e…5cb9backed Yes46c23.7$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112152.4%11 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+35.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked No75c23.31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.837650%38 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked No76c21.54$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1434067.4%229 W · 111 L+24.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+6.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No50c20.89$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.371,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3f…f038backed No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1066141.8%276 W · 385 L-12.8wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.