Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x230c27f52e2b9f0dfc52c2316df4541ee731a46455742d19fbb804d53f07db52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,234
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked Yes | 15c | 3,267$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.31 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked No | 70c | 1,232$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.24 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 16c | 855.41$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.43 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 5c | 689.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 30c | 660.72$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.51 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adf…48cdbacked Yes | 46c | 633.65$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.44 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -6.2wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 528.44$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.07 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 20c | 519.58$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.85 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 19c | 500.01$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.87 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked Yes | 15c | 432.81$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.08 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 20c | 364.15$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.61 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 343.16$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.95 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 334.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 311.37$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes | 6c | 280$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa322…dd03backed Yes | 34c | 273.07$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.25 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 22c | 272.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 261.4$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.03 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 78c | 256.4$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 20c | 240$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.33 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…4213backed Yes | 49c | 198.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.66 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4611…3790backed Yes | 22c | 190.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 22c | 160.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 22c | 154.18$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…652abacked Yes | 19c | 149.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 13c | 138.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 22c | 136.64$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 136.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 80c | 135.84$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 80c | 134.38$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.88 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 19c | 130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 12c | 123.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…e158backed Yes | 21c | 121.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe84…20e0backed No | 78c | 118.68$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x601d…0afdbacked Yes | 26c | 116.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.21 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 22c | 115.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 27c | 114.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 113.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 21c | 113$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 112.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 19c | 104.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 80c | 101.96$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe01f…ff34backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6b…c053backed Yes | 21c | 99.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 76c | 99.02$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 79c | 97.3$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 22c | 96.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcf…c0f2backed Yes | 16c | 91.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 167 | 9%15 W · 152 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9536…68f9backed Yes | 17c | 91.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 17c | 90.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 19c | 90.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed Yes | 27c | 83.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c55…a735backed Yes | 20c | 83.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 18c | 81.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 19c | 79.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 78.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d33…6be3backed Yes | 27c | 76.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 142 | 36.6%52 W · 90 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Yes | 15c | 75.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 79c | 73.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 22c | 72.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfedf…ee2abacked Yes | 22c | 66.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed No | 75c | 65.79$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x643d…f7ddbacked Yes | 20c | 65.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 68 | 25%17 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebee…7f68backed Yes | 31c | 65.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 95 | 29.5%28 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 18c | 64.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9240…a7c7backed Yes | 52c | 63.74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Yes | 32c | 61.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 21c | 60.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 75c | 50.18$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfa…1542backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 49.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.49 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…ab6abacked Yes | 42c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d20…bbcbbacked Yes | 33c | 47.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d8…0c8cbacked Yes | 51c | 39.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 169 | 24.3%41 W · 128 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea9…7927backed No | 72c | 34.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ced…6c85backed No | 74c | 33.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -4.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 45c | 32.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 79c | 31.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 31.01$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 78c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 77c | 29.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.59 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec8a…94b3backed Yes | 40c | 28.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 75c | 26.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2042…643fbacked Yes | 53c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…5cb9backed Yes | 46c | 23.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 75c | 23.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked No | 76c | 21.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 50c | 20.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.37 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 47°F or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or higher on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.