TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 29?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$45,255
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$42,989

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,255 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x62af…6321backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc938…57ebbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes19c1,137$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.064,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes9c949.58$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0664021.7%139 W · 501 L-23.6wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes30c740.78$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.341,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes3c690$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.51,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes14c587.89$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.8217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes33c511.64$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.8973927.3%202 W · 537 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes11c408.27$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.161,29833.1%430 W · 868 L+39.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc921…d6f3backed Yes8c306$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3315339.9%61 W · 92 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes28c300.86$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.994,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes25c261.45$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.151,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x151b…ef82backed Yes47c261.28$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.588955.1%49 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes16c257.35$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.276,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed Yes24c245.87$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.432,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa20c…451abacked Yes38c220.11$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.648016.3%13 W · 67 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-73.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ea2…e97fbacked No62c210.94$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.9435018%63 W · 287 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No66c206.13$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.55,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes36c200.75$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.193132.3%10 W · 21 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2db…2263backed Yes23c200.34$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5411126.1%29 W · 82 L-9.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-33.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No74c200$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.7958349.4%288 W · 295 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf787…1b63backed Yes25c199.57$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7943238%164 W · 268 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes12c196.09$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.317,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4973…5527backed Yes10c192.18$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3330046.7%140 W · 160 L-8.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x028d…feccbacked Yes31c176.97$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.131643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb071…607cbacked No71c149.99$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xade8…652abacked Yes26c149.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.671625%4 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-42.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes12c139.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.366735.4%236 W · 431 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc941…a0e8backed No61c135.97$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.0320838%79 W · 129 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes37c134.36$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504235.7%15 W · 27 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-33.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No67c132.16$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.191,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes18c115.91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8632157.3%184 W · 137 L+17.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf306…2155backed Yes27c111.53$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305733.3%19 W · 38 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88cc…c3fabacked Yes34c108.37$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e3b…b989backed Yes25c108$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275950.8%30 W · 29 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes24c104.69$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.871,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes28c103.32$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.447442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No70c101.38$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.634,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…50c2backed No72c100$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed Yes33c99.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.528737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8596…34c2backed No64c92.99$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.482466.7%16 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c82…f315backed Yes28c89.2$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6813930.2%42 W · 97 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No65c88.5$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.28,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf97b…c751backed Yes36c88.2$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick27cpaid+22.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f12…7057backed Yes28c86.33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.1719259.9%115 W · 77 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes26c86.08$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9833243.1%143 W · 189 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a31…335fbacked No71c82.68$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.856163.9%39 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc85e…5d37backed Yes37c81.56$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3014632.9%48 W · 98 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-21.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes20c80.42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.086643.9%29 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes25c79.32$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9f0c…1fb7backed Yes39c76.92$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303850%19 W · 19 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+21.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e44…eec7backed Yes34c76.67$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.073633.3%12 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-31.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0101…172ebacked No66c75.76$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.761145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-27.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes37c75$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5595933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes21c74$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.651,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No71c70.02$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.0712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No73c68.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.539,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9b2…2c4abacked Yes38c66.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251560%9 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+34.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes31c65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.155841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2845…b637backed No62c63.28$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.0485330.7%262 W · 591 L+28.2wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x89ad…d1f3backed Yes16c62.81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+193.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x951c…d8c7backed Yes28c60.34$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7868335.4%242 W · 441 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e71…9a89backed Yes21c60$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes38c59.01$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.131643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c7f…5576backed No63c58.77$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes27c57.7$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.761,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes32c55.2$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7643525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d6d…0b9ebacked Yes33c54.52$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1530%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe01f…ff34backed Yes38c53.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba5…fc9bbacked No64c52.78$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1d3…c904backed Yes38c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed No68c47.45$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1889544.7%400 W · 495 L+30.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa717…faeabacked No77c47$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6331170.7%220 W · 91 L+42.3wins+0.14per pick57cpaid+30.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x9c6b…c053backed Yes26c46.72$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.041330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No75c45.19$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.113,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed No73c45$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1599949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cb6…2ff6backed Yes26c43.88$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.419943.4%43 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87bb…01b9backed No73c43$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.471553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x039b…3d62backed Yes36c42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.121233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+100.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf21…4e69backed No74c42$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.11250%6 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd8b…49a3backed No63c41.89$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a37…1059backed Yes36c41.79$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156339.7%25 W · 38 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a25…6553backed Yes36c41.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick54cpaid-62.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7740…a03cbacked Yes33c41.58$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.727425.7%19 W · 55 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0d29…c502backed No73c40.86$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.864261.9%26 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick71cpaid-15.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.46833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x914b…b84abacked No65c39.92$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.997650%38 W · 38 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5d8…1db0backed Yes26c39.45$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.16119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick20cpaid-62%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb19…0227backed Yes28c36.32$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101030%3 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick35cpaid+12.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb897…7007backed Yes29c36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4411038.2%42 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc2…0751backed Yes31c35.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.14250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes34c35.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1221440.2%86 W · 128 L+12.6wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x36b7…8cddbacked No75c34.76$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcafd…b861backed No74c32$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.177272.2%52 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58a4…7456backed No74c31.58$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2123022.6%52 W · 178 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7360…1848backed Yes36c30.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.14728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-51.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe744…67a8backed No65c26.15$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.1515477.9%120 W · 34 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick75cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37d3…4e40backed No59c25.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.425058%29 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1345…e4debacked No80c25$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.067676.3%58 W · 18 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick72cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.