Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8460629f7d7015361bb964cef0baa2fd2c1c10919100a553197709078a0bbd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62af…6321backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc938…57ebbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 1,137$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.06 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 9c | 949.58$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.06 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 30c | 740.78$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.34 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 690$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 587.89$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.82 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 33c | 511.64$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.89 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 11c | 408.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed Yes | 8c | 306$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 28c | 300.86$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.99 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 25c | 261.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.15 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed Yes | 47c | 261.28$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.58 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 257.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 24c | 245.87$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.43 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked Yes | 38c | 220.11$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.64 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea2…e97fbacked No | 62c | 210.94$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.94 | 350 | 18%63 W · 287 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 206.13$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e7…10c0backed Yes | 36c | 200.75$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.19 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2db…2263backed Yes | 23c | 200.34$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 74c | 200$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 25c | 199.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 12c | 196.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 10c | 192.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…feccbacked Yes | 31c | 176.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb071…607cbacked No | 71c | 149.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…652abacked Yes | 26c | 149.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.67 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 12c | 139.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 61c | 135.97$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.03 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes | 37c | 134.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 132.16$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 18c | 115.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf306…2155backed Yes | 27c | 111.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 57 | 33.3%19 W · 38 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88cc…c3fabacked Yes | 34c | 108.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3b…b989backed Yes | 25c | 108$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 24c | 104.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 28c | 103.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 101.38$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…50c2backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 33c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8596…34c2backed No | 64c | 92.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 28c | 89.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 88.5$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf97b…c751backed Yes | 36c | 88.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed Yes | 28c | 86.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 26c | 86.08$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked No | 71c | 82.68$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 37c | 81.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7dc…0af0backed Yes | 20c | 80.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 79.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0c…1fb7backed Yes | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 34c | 76.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0101…172ebacked No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 37c | 75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 21c | 74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 70.02$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 68.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b2…2c4abacked Yes | 38c | 66.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 62c | 63.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.04 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…d1f3backed Yes | 16c | 62.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +193.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 28c | 60.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e71…9a89backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed Yes | 38c | 59.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c7f…5576backed No | 63c | 58.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 57.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 32c | 55.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6d…0b9ebacked Yes | 33c | 54.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe01f…ff34backed Yes | 38c | 53.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…fc9bbacked No | 64c | 52.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d3…c904backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 68c | 47.45$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 77c | 47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6b…c053backed Yes | 26c | 46.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 45.19$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed Yes | 26c | 43.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…01b9backed No | 73c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…3d62backed Yes | 36c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +100.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…4e69backed No | 74c | 42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd8b…49a3backed No | 63c | 41.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a37…1059backed Yes | 36c | 41.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…6553backed Yes | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 33c | 41.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d29…c502backed No | 73c | 40.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 71cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…8a41backed Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…b84abacked No | 65c | 39.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d8…1db0backed Yes | 26c | 39.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb19…0227backed Yes | 28c | 36.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…7007backed Yes | 29c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…0751backed Yes | 31c | 35.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b7…8cddbacked No | 75c | 34.76$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed No | 74c | 31.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7360…1848backed Yes | 36c | 30.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 65c | 26.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed No | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1345…e4debacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 76 | 76.3%58 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 54-55°F on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 47°F or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 66°F or higher on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 52-53°F on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.