Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a3dfd7aa9b2c133a85da5e56a56ea20642b17a29daa56622d4719a6f22b81b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,633 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 506.44$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee7…9c56backed Yes | 54c | 368.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 260.98$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 218.47$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.56 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 42c | 212.64$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.33 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 211.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a9…d0e4backed Yes | 60c | 202.02$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.82 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 42c | 199.12$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.76 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…9b9cbacked Yes | 43c | 185.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 36c | 169.75$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 40c | 148.44$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.94 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 145.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.97 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 42c | 142.52$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93d4…7345backed Yes | 52c | 136.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 41c | 129.68$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.83 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 115.69$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd67c…30d0backed Yes | 51c | 97.19$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 40c | 95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 36c | 83.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 48c | 83.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 54c | 82.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 56c | 80.96$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…abdbbacked Yes | 35c | 75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 14c | 74.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 42c | 70.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 56c | 70.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.92 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e4…eec0backed Yes | 48c | 63.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…d55fbacked Yes | 43c | 60.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.96 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed Yes | 40c | 53.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 27c | 53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 56c | 51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4201…007fbacked No | 52c | 47.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.62 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 44c | 45.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 65c | 44.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed93…037cbacked Yes | 57c | 43.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.81 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 55c | 40.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.25 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 39.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce1…b2a8backed Yes | 46c | 38.32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf30e…b2f1backed No | 73c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 43c | 37.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb94e…e6e5backed No | 62c | 35.77$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 56c | 35.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked No | 57c | 34.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 50c | 32.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 54c | 31.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 43c | 27.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d9…bad0backed Yes | 39c | 27.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f08…73a8backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…91edbacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed No | 65c | 24.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 54c | 24.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.07 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 63c | 23.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 49c | 22.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x684f…cef7backed No | 72c | 20.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 53c | 20.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 63c | 18.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 64c | 18.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 56c | 17.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 62c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 54°F or higher on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 36-37°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.