Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 54°F or higher on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52f6ea49d45d8c391fdf3349adcce893d6c08d247857f1a059d54f5befaf6133
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,646 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d9e…5421backed No | 66c | 824.84$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.79 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 40c | 551.82$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.08 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 35c | 476.68$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 34c | 476$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.92 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 57c | 401.69$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.82 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 325.12$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 77c | 250$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.05 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 63c | 249.37$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.34 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 49c | 216.54$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.19 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 32c | 214.15$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.29 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 6c | 208$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 44c | 202.18$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.64 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 54c | 197.6$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.9 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf177…d1b5backed No | 60c | 174.56$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 47c | 171.07$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 49c | 166.12$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.35 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 153.99$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.51 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 28c | 150.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 59c | 150.13$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.65 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e3…a50cbacked Yes | 47c | 127.67$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.81 | 214 | 36%77 W · 137 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 55c | 116.28$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 111.84$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.24 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 106.68$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 61c | 98.87$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.87 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 95.46$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 66c | 91.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.24 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…8981backed Yes | 28c | 86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.71 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 55c | 84.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf30e…b2f1backed Yes | 68c | 83$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 52c | 75.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb1…d05dbacked Yes | 41c | 74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 50c | 70.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 41c | 68.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8d…f707backed No | 69c | 67.26$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…2bc6backed Yes | 56c | 59.18$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed Yes | 30c | 58.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 49c | 56.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 49c | 56.82$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 54c | 56.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 47c | 52.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 60c | 52.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 49.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 42c | 49.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.81 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 45c | 45.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 49c | 43.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4201…007fbacked No | 60c | 43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 42c | 41.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 48c | 40.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 30c | 40.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 38c | 39.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 44c | 39.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 52c | 39.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94e6…0a73backed Yes | 37c | 39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd228…ea6fbacked Yes | 34c | 37.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 229 | 34.1%78 W · 151 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 60c | 37.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 36c | 37.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 73 | 9.6%7 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 39c | 37.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 45c | 36.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e9…9c03backed No | 60c | 36.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94e…e6e5backed No | 58c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6390…9bf0backed No | 42c | 34.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 48c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 46c | 32.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a15…52d6backed Yes | 36c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 50c | 29.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 54c | 29.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 50c | 26.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 56c | 26.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 47c | 26.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 46c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05a0…636abacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 50c | 24.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 335 | 35.2%118 W · 217 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 48c | 24.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed Yes | 41c | 24.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 48c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 45c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked Yes | 62c | 23.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.83 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 57c | 22.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 64c | 22.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 47c | 21.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…3b8dbacked No | 57c | 21.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbfc…0be4backed No | 58c | 20.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.9wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6526…9c80backed Yes | 54c | 18.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 123 | 37.4%46 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd129…8375backed No | 60c | 18.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…72ddbacked No | 56c | 18.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 60c | 17.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 64c | 15.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 54°F or higher on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 36-37°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 46-47°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 48-49°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.