Us Politics · resolved market
Which chamber will move first on a funding bill?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ad1f7aabd8436965afaea495fd57a4b144b24dcd95dd9232f67444ec3f1e564
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Senateof Senate, House
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2aac…dfadbacked Senate | 45c | 1,681$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930.73 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed House | 23c | 1,233$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.12 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed House | 63c | 1,179$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$748.28 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…67c4backed Senate | 75c | 1,161$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.3 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…9d39backed House | 55c | 1,077$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.75 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed House | 20c | 772.73$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.43 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed House | 60c | 713.23$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.16 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked House | 69c | 704.88$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.31 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | +12.8wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked House | 52c | 589.61$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.49 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4a…6cb1backed Senate | 78c | 550$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.98 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Senate | 49c | 499.55$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.32 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed House | 8c | 487.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe427…4c44backed Senate | 76c | 459.61$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.61 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked House | 9c | 378.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed Senate | 65c | 255.55$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…60f2backed House | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x919e…d915backed House | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked House | 33c | 227.61$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.16 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x750a…d86cbacked Senate | 66c | 222$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked House | 21c | 222$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…a488backed House | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed Senate | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 152 | 38.8%59 W · 93 L | -13.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x781e…2484backed Senate | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Senate | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +4.9wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked House | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -6.1wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed House | 31c | 197.93$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.93 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed House | 22c | 181.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.87 | 115 | 38.3%44 W · 71 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9228…e41abacked House | 55c | 179.4$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.67 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed House | 51c | 179.01$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.89 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed55…5022backed Senate | 64c | 160.49$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.06 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b9c…d282backed Senate | 78c | 115.46$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed House | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed House | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…b68cbacked Senate | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3da…d974backed House | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed House | 45c | 99.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed House | 56c | 92.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0429…df8fbacked Senate | 47c | 73.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.72 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed House | 36c | 68.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb5…69debacked Senate | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3a…49cfbacked Senate | 33c | 63.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed House | 29c | 63.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf353…7aecbacked Senate | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x513f…1da3backed Senate | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd55…b679backed Senate | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Senate | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed House | 27c | 42.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Senate | 71c | 35.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x283e…9316backed Senate | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Senate | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…204abacked Senate | 67c | 29.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50ce…321cbacked Senate | 51c | 26.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.51per pick | 24cpaid | +283.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed House | 59c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08b8…7326backed Senate | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4da…1772backed Senate | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c4…0fbbbacked Senate | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.