TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xcbb5…69de

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
19
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Crypto Milestones, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Crypto Milestones at 53 out of 100; worst Middle East at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick9cpaid-27%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+483.7%+$967.37
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$190
Will Wicked: For Good be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$220
Will Lilo and Stitch be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$180.12
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 8 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+67.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
First to 5k: Gold or ETH?backed Gold · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+100%+$10
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+35.1%+$17.57
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 14, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+284.6%+$42.69
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+143.2%+$28.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Which chamber will move first on a funding bill?backed Senate · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+35.1%+$17.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jaxon Smith-Njigba win the 2025–26 NFL OPOY?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Nov 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$48.76
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.