MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa98465083f5190b174e956a94e01f40fda2bd07f9d2b78a017df5a5ff6e58e88
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,125
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,635
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,125 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f21…0ec5backed Under | 47c | 81,184$38,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,748.99 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 57,557$29,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,824.98 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 5,241$2,693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,693.05 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,650 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 48c | 2,913$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,524.89 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 53c | 2,838$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503.95 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e3…69d1backed Under | 62c | 2,457$1,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.82 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa974…ef79backed Under | 46c | 2,033$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.41 | 220 | 47.7%105 W · 115 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.99 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Over | 54c | 1,879$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.61 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 53c | 1,866$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.3 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 55c | 1,778$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.93 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 52c | 1,500$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 55c | 1,109$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.97 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 53c | 1,000$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 53c | 991$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.23 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 55c | 760.11$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.06 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 36c | 702.25$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.01 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 53c | 629.91$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.85 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 53c | 576.72$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.66 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 55c | 549$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.95 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 54c | 499.99$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.55 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Over | 54c | 499.99$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.99 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 46c | 386.34$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.6 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 53c | 250$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.5 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…dd93backed Over | 55c | 249.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe062…4907backed Over | 53c | 185$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.05 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 56c | 180$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e3…e736backed Under | 47c | 162.59$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.17 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 54c | 153.29$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.79 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 51c | 120.75$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.12 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under | 49c | 109.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.96 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 53c | 109.17$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.93 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 46c | 97.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Over | 51c | 94.9$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Over | 51c | 92.07$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.33 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 46c | 79.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 56c | 75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 53c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 53c | 66.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 53c | 61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a66…a5d7backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Over | 54c | 50.18$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 55c | 46.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…c407backed Over | 55c | 44.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 43.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae37…90f2backed Over | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…bc23backed Over | 55c | 34.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 32c | 34.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 55c | 34.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde6b…7178backed Over | 51c | 32.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 53c | 30.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5c…fb95backed Under | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Under | 45c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 48c | 23.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 54c | 21.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 53c | 20.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 237 | 50.6%120 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…9ce7backed Over | 57c | 18.42$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- Athletics vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.