TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Baltimore Oriolesof Athletics, Baltimore Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$307,922
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$328,736

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $307,922 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 214 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xabb8…bba3backed Baltimore Orioles51c48,974$24,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,013.0998149.9%490 W · 491 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Athletics20c34,257$6,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,840.492,02139.5%798 W · 1,223 L-25.7wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Baltimore Orioles58c30,893$17,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,100.52,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Athletics50c14,567$7,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,351.931,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Athletics51c13,001$6,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,629.384,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Athletics35c12,178$4,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,308.041,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Baltimore Orioles80c11,988$9,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,397.746239.6%183 W · 279 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Athletics49c10,170$4,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,983.382,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles62c6,137$3,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,350.6411,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6db5…e279backed Baltimore Orioles78c5,394$4,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,209.0414152.5%74 W · 67 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb7…a0f1backed Athletics36c5,086$1,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,848.395050%25 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Baltimore Orioles49c4,500$2,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,294.975,40050.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L+17.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Athletics9c4,326$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.8310,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Baltimore Orioles50c3,777$1,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,904.792,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Baltimore Orioles55c3,700$2,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,677.691,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Athletics47c3,554$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,679.968,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Athletics50c3,000$1,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,514.991,06348.2%512 W · 551 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Baltimore Orioles49c3,000$1,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,529.9877951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Baltimore Orioles62c2,752$1,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.292,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Athletics23c2,640$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.229948.8%146 W · 153 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Baltimore Orioles49c2,188$1,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,115.833,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3008…37b8backed Athletics50c2,142$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,07110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32bf…ec60backed Athletics29c2,056$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600.1514134%48 W · 93 L+0.2wins0.00per pick34cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Athletics49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00019053.7%102 W · 88 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Baltimore Orioles51c1,989$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.045,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles63c1,756$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.4612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Athletics48c1,664$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80015749.7%78 W · 79 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Baltimore Orioles50c1,600$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8001,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Baltimore Orioles50c1,509$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.31,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Athletics33c1,507$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.861,11349%545 W · 568 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Baltimore Orioles50c1,308$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.872,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Athletics50c1,221$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$610.7475049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b15…fa73backed Baltimore Orioles57c1,174$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50533864.2%217 W · 121 L+23.1wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Athletics38c1,170$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.451,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Athletics50c1,032$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.1173748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Baltimore Orioles79c1,002$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.1947589.1%423 W · 52 L+84.9wins+0.18per pick71cpaid+25%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Athletics36c931.47$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.4579147.9%379 W · 412 L+3.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1399…3586backed Athletics42c894.37$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3801723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-44%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Baltimore Orioles58c892.24$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.814,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1548…fe8ebacked Athletics38c869.12$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.694553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa73a…656abacked Baltimore Orioles50c847$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.557758.1%335 W · 242 L+28.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd50…b5c5backed Athletics61c770.49$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Athletics35c756.73$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.5150337.2%187 W · 316 L-42.3wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Athletics50c747.89$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.196,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Athletics33c714.37$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.311,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Baltimore Orioles73c696.05$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.098,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f28…d173backed Athletics46c685$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.1719157.6%110 W · 81 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd03b…184cbacked Baltimore Orioles52c585$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.6328453.9%153 W · 131 L+4.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Athletics42c501.88$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.646,30248.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L+181.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Baltimore Orioles64c497.25$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.011,07558.3%627 W · 448 L-21.3wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f8d…a92abacked Athletics51c480$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.823754%128 W · 109 L+8.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9e2…3ceabacked Baltimore Orioles50c480$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24011751.3%60 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa42f…5f5abacked Baltimore Orioles63c474.05$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.0760348.6%293 W · 310 L-1.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-18.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Baltimore Orioles44c454.54$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.542,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dc8…6655backed Athletics49c416$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.848353%44 W · 39 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d8a…e03fbacked Athletics51c413.22$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.747154.9%39 W · 32 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Baltimore Orioles50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20028042.1%118 W · 162 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Athletics50c400$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.391,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6c4…df5fbacked Baltimore Orioles49c399.99$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20439850.3%200 W · 198 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Athletics22c397.67$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2623036.1%83 W · 147 L-11.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Athletics51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20094034.3%322 W · 618 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc313…e128backed Baltimore Orioles51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.1637941.2%156 W · 223 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Baltimore Orioles49c353.65$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.881,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x889c…e375backed Athletics55c345.45$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19040348.4%195 W · 208 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa106…5abbbacked Athletics55c341.24$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.6819752.3%103 W · 94 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Baltimore Orioles76c333.95$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.281257.3%465 W · 347 L-1.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57fe…13c1backed Athletics44c329.59$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.026131.1%19 W · 42 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-33.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ec2…bd08backed Baltimore Orioles51c309.48$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.441,13742.6%484 W · 653 L+10.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc468…530fbacked Baltimore Orioles62c303.07$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.9433274.1%246 W · 86 L+28.8wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+11.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x88fb…db3abacked Baltimore Orioles50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15073143.4%317 W · 414 L-15.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f4…6fa9backed Athletics32c256.82$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.291,77758.4%1,037 W · 740 L+91.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x20e5…118dbacked Athletics50c250$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12551449.2%253 W · 261 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacbe…85d4backed Baltimore Orioles50c230$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11522849.1%112 W · 116 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles65c229.79$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.025,12654.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L+231.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Athletics52c222.19$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11636157.9%209 W · 152 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75b6…8ad0backed Baltimore Orioles54c221.03$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.0313345.9%61 W · 72 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Baltimore Orioles49c204$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.044755.3%26 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+24.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Athletics51c204$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.042,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Baltimore Orioles50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1003,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked Baltimore Orioles49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10235446%163 W · 191 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Baltimore Orioles49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1022,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x116e…25fcbacked Athletics63c196.73$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.942650%13 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8508…c22fbacked Athletics51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,00052.4%524 W · 476 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Athletics26c186$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.361,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d5f…84bfbacked Baltimore Orioles50c181$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.51,05150.4%530 W · 521 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0633…cfdebacked Athletics48c173.33$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.210555.2%58 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedd0…731cbacked Baltimore Orioles51c167.49$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.0716159.6%96 W · 65 L+0.6wins0.00per pick59cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa497…7891backed Athletics48c162.5$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.339549.5%47 W · 48 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Baltimore Orioles50c160$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8079543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d28…ad43backed Athletics28c158.88$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.555545.5%25 W · 30 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Athletics49c154.27$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.794,47748.8%2,186 W · 2,291 L-47.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Athletics29c152.18$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5839640.9%162 W · 234 L-25.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-31.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Athletics38c138.61$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.0982551.6%426 W · 399 L+3.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee11…19a9backed Baltimore Orioles50c137.09$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.411553%61 W · 54 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Athletics49c137$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.131,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Athletics9c136.59$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.298762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9586…de67backed Athletics51c132.64$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.32948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x694d…c5a4backed Athletics18c131.25$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236446.9%30 W · 34 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6afa…e227backed Athletics46c130.43$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607850%39 W · 39 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc5b…08bbbacked Athletics59c130$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.738768.5%265 W · 122 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.