MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9863b686e04852d476976eb9ab35b3cf1e70a4642c0b8e23ed670b122a4c6a3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $191,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $180,554
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $191,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f21…0ec5backed Under | 55c | 143,286$78,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,980.13 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 64,780$29,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29,157.06 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97fd…3313backed Over | 46c | 19,975$9,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,188.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd52…df69backed Over | 45c | 14,040$6,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,277.78 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 45c | 11,679$5,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,296.58 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 47c | 10,517$4,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,943.09 | 324 | 51.9%168 W · 156 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Over | 44c | 8,868$3,926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,926.07 | 149 | 24.2%36 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 46c | 5,500$2,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,530 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 46c | 5,000$2,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,300 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 45c | 4,796$2,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,152.07 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 44c | 4,371$1,923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,923.29 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 3,998$1,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,839.04 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c14…68f3backed Over | 4c | 3,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 47c | 2,202$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.53 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Over | 47c | 2,145$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008.15 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Over | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 54c | 1,915$1,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$881.01 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 1,824$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.86 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Over | 46c | 1,814$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.57 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 1,800$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 47c | 1,700$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799 | 1,922 | 53.4%1,027 W · 895 L | +28.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 47c | 1,566$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.35 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafc4…daa1backed Over | 4c | 1,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +93.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…cd14backed Over | 8c | 1,228$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.11 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 6cpaid | +393.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Over | 11c | 1,212$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 102 | 15.7%16 W · 86 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Over | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 46c | 994.18$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.32 | 384 | 53.6%206 W · 178 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 53c | 945.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.64 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Over | 9c | 900$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 46c | 761$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.06 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 44c | 700$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Over | 44c | 674.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 54c | 609.7$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.46 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x276b…c0c8backed Over | 8c | 600$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 43 | 2.3%1 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…5896backed Over | 46c | 540$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.4 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Over | 11c | 500$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 710 | 44.5%316 W · 394 L | -23.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Over | 11c | 500$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Over | 47c | 486$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.42 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 46c | 440$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.98 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 44c | 299.4$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.74 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Over | 45c | 295.51$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.98 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Over | 47c | 268$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.96 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 46c | 189.83$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.32 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Over | 46c | 160.04$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.62 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0373…6d6bbacked Over | 47c | 159.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 45c | 143$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 45c | 140$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Over | 45c | 99.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 44c | 95.71$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.02 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Under | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 46c | 85.75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 47c | 85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under | 59c | 82.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15db…1da8backed Over | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Over | 45c | 51.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Under | 54c | 43.86$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 47c | 40.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.01 | 848 | 40.2%341 W · 507 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 47c | 39.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 53c | 38.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 2,995 | 47.9%1,435 W · 1,560 L | +12.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a37…4daebacked Under | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Over | 34c | 33.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Over | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 47c | 22.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 10.5this page
- Athletics vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Athletics won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.