MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a2de7864cf03fed0bece1c5ed54f7e12eba8a6acada262675bec4a97fd0a5d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,239
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,239 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 48c | 3,365$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 53c | 2,716$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,271.61 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 44c | 2,207$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980.94 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 54c | 1,767$954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812.59 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 54c | 1,764$953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.44 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 55c | 1,451$793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$657.95 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Under | 54c | 985.76$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.44 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -12.2wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 46c | 984.65$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.94 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 46c | 984.65$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.94 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 26c | 712$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.28 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 74c | 700$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 53c | 566.97$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.48 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Over | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 58c | 344.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.82 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 54c | 310$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.6 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 41c | 295$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.81 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 22c | 277.16$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Over | 46c | 260$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.6 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 47c | 255.32$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 52c | 216.89$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.97 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 47c | 215$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 54c | 186.38$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.73 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 35c | 138$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 53c | 93.16$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 47c | 85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 53c | 75.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.42 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 47c | 68$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 47c | 67.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 77c | 56.43$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.98 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Over | 32c | 56.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 46.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Under | 54c | 35.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 292 | 55.8%163 W · 129 L | +12.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Over | 47c | 35.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 47c | 30.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee8…7406backed Over | 36c | 29.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5c…fb95backed Over | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 46c | 22.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Under | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 66c | 15.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 5.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.