Movies · resolved market
Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x970f78d94215502cfd3c875d8cc6eb0455495890d376a0f3c6e0b7082bf26d14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6837…15e1backed No | 49c | 2,139$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,044.69 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde5e…3a94backed Yes | 28c | 1,810$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,306.42 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…8f39backed Yes | 63c | 1,086$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.28 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…1dc1backed Yes | 45c | 1,078$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.76 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8330…b88fbacked Yes | 51c | 986.28$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.33 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 32c | 878.58$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.36 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 37c | 675.67$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.67 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x519a…1551backed No | 52c | 648.35$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.21 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x990b…7ac3backed Yes | 59c | 413.12$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.98 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 62c | 400$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 30c | 389.85$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.14 | 137 | 40.1%55 W · 82 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 79c | 284.02$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…ab7cbacked Yes | 58c | 250$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 49c | 222$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.22 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 29c | 217.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.88 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…449dbacked Yes | 69c | 217.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa02…5b9abacked Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfb…e887backed Yes | 70c | 181.15$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 13c | 168.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 25c | 163.96$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.17 | 146 | 28.1%41 W · 105 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…8299backed Yes | 66c | 153$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ca…0f21backed Yes | 51c | 120$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 24c | 111.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.69 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | +22.0wins | +0.23per pick | 23cpaid | +88%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 67cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 69c | 96.33$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59c2…de58backed Yes | 65c | 82.11$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.51 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1cf…9656backed No | 27c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 43c | 79.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.21 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae91…0f69backed Yes | 48c | 76.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.62 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcccb…2ed4backed Yes | 67c | 72.89$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 58c | 60.57$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked Yes | 53c | 55.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…0720backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…f272backed Yes | 74c | 47.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…d015backed No | 46c | 43.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 61c | 42.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes | 75c | 41.53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.29 | 198 | 36.4%72 W · 126 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcee2…abe9backed Yes | 66c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 55c | 36.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe107…eef0backed No | 45c | 35.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 32c | 32.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef6d…e751backed No | 45c | 31.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 57c | 28.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 44c | 24.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e8…e923backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +25%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 64c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7af…b28ebacked Yes | 65c | 16.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db5…701ebacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)this page
- Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)No won
- Will "Man Vs Baby" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)No won
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.