Movies · resolved market
Will "Man Vs Baby" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x110dea956ea6d9b01776be57adef35d893d06ed1bcc1d83609813599b1c3d80b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6837…15e1backed Yes | 23c | 4,760$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.71 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e44dbacked No | 72c | 3,548$2,571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$977 | 67 | 31.3%21 W · 46 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…ea12backed Yes | 45c | 1,361$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked No | 26c | 1,346$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.15 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x110f…8f39backed Yes | 74c | 1,146$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.19 | 44 | 72.7%32 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 13c | 1,110$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.36 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +8.2wins | +0.28per pick | 17cpaid | +145.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.8 | 331 | 23.9%79 W · 252 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -15%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 21c | 497$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.21 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…a80dbacked Yes | 33c | 381$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.84 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 20c | 353$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 194 | 40.2%78 W · 116 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf95…694dbacked No | 26c | 300$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes | 29c | 250$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.45 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ca…0f21backed No | 64c | 232.3$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.75 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8e…1dc1backed No | 70c | 219.7$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97f3…0ebabacked Yes | 49c | 202.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa02…5b9abacked Yes | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 69c | 195.62$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd3…4285backed Yes | 28c | 194.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…c288backed Yes | 18c | 113.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked No | 74c | 112.05$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e69…5645backed Yes | 21c | 107.9$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…8299backed Yes | 28c | 100.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 62cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1110…e29fbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9f…0fc9backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 278 | 1.8%5 W · 273 L | -9.2wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f1…bdc6backed No | 71c | 99.72$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 23c | 85.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 71c | 73.71$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.63 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…e6d3backed Yes | 19c | 63.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…522dbacked No | 72c | 59.74$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1401…0707backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df7…b364backed Yes | 69c | 28.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 57c | 27.68$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 67c | 23.27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 57c | 22.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 192 | 40.6%78 W · 114 L | -20.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1757…bd49backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Man Vs Baby" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)this page
- Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)Yes won
- Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)No won
- Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.