World Politics · resolved market
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah receive between 30,000 and 40,000 votes in the 2025 Honduran presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24d5248c46298fe20c98282184ceba3ab66cf65aab0b4306c8131e94baa3a8b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,355
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 54c | 5,599$2,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,998.39 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed No | 35c | 2,945$1,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,901.97 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 55 | 9.1%5 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed Yes | 11c | 1,748$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.87 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 17c | 1,068$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.29 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 52c | 1,034$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.3 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23a8…8004backed Yes | 5c | 511.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 53c | 429$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.55 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 4c | 403.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 18c | 362.49$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 203 | 28.6%58 W · 145 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d32…32e1backed Yes | 6c | 280.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2278…3188backed No | 64c | 249.39$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked Yes | 10c | 230$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed No | 34c | 167.91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.82 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 67c | 138.17$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.22 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 13c | 108.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 35c | 108.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.27 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82e…b971backed Yes | 13c | 89.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 20c | 82.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.02 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 32c | 81.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 24c | 64.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah receive between 30,000 and 40,000 votes in the 2025 Honduran presidential election?this page
- Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah receive between 10,000 and 20,000 votes in the 2025 Honduran presidential election?No won
- Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah receive between 20,000 and 30,000 votes in the 2025 Honduran presidential election?Yes won
- Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah receive between 40,000 and 50,000 votes in the 2025 Honduran presidential election?No won
- Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah receive between 50,000 and 60,000 votes in the 2025 Honduran presidential election?No won
- Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah receive fewer than 10,000 votes in the 2025 Honduran presidential election?No won
- Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah receive more than 60,000 votes in the 2025 Honduran presidential election?No won
- Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum receive fewer than 10,000 votes in the 2025 Honduran presidential election?No won
- Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum receive more than 10,000 votes in the 2025 Honduran presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.