World Politics · resolved market
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win 25-29 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x38b66672b7a7c201444c2301a67cdcf57f77a5d4d0aa0ce5dfe8e87a5036beed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,198
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce55…c888backed Yes | 26c | 1,444$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,068.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +146.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2756…42efbacked No | 74c | 1,211$896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed Yes | 26c | 837$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.38 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16a0…72f1backed No | 74c | 770$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.8 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 44c | 498.21$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.54 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 50c | 335.02$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.77 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…50ecbacked No | 74c | 300$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 31c | 109.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 62c | 106.76$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.52 | 125 | 56.8%71 W · 54 L | +12.5wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…bb4abacked Yes | 64c | 101.95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.55 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 46c | 83.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4619…3f91backed Yes | 64c | 63.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae8…5673backed No | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 61c | 59.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 45c | 54.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 41c | 51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 59c | 50.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.99 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 50c | 49.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9b…b6aabacked Yes | 74c | 43.09$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Yes | 40c | 36.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1129…a99abacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 50c | 32.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…e937backed Yes | 67c | 30.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 51c | 20.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win 25-29 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?this page
- Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win 30-34 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win 35-39 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win 40+ seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win <25 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.