World Politics · resolved market
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win 30-34 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d5f7891233cfabd0c9632fd44001c4523a01ea3b09efdf9dc6c0e73c739e531
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,090
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,090 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 12c | 898$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.76 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -4.8wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -79.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 12c | 887$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.44 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…7d8ebacked Yes | 41c | 405.2$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…a7c2backed Yes | 15c | 289.85$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | -15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d52…58f0backed Yes | 13c | 270.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +114.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54db…0174backed Yes | 18c | 260.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.35 | 196 | 23%45 W · 151 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 12c | 218.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | +6.8wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 40c | 185.95$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 13c | 143.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 8c | 133.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa872…c12fbacked Yes | 14c | 127.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd867…0cbbbacked Yes | 16c | 125.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 14c | 115.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9b…b6aabacked No | 80c | 34.67$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x703e…f497backed Yes | 68c | 26.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b13…93e1backed Yes | 68c | 19.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win 30-34 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?this page
- Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win 25-29 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?Yes won
- Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win 35-39 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win 40+ seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win <25 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.