World Politics · resolved market
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win <25 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2960e54c409dea3d8e07c4ccb5db5bcc058f24dd2ba5c5e9f114d2494dae275
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9acd…3106backed Yes | 46c | 1,086$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c1…62fbbacked Yes | 46c | 1,086$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e4…6e9fbacked Yes | 46c | 1,086$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…a7cbbacked Yes | 46c | 1,086$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f1…5a4bbacked Yes | 46c | 1,086$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x697f…e847backed Yes | 46c | 1,045$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed No | 29c | 1,000$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 24cpaid | +200.9%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x8672…6018backed No | 54c | 925$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf01f…182ebacked No | 54c | 925$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4186…42e1backed No | 54c | 925$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…3ef2backed No | 54c | 925$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe518…542bbacked No | 54c | 925$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c03…9b51backed No | 54c | 925$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57fa…ddffbacked No | 54c | 925$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 30c | 800$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +13.2wins | +0.49per pick | 29cpaid | +167.8%equal weight | 78+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0x7288…42f1backed Yes | 7c | 670.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…e6bdbacked No | 29c | 644.14$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.36 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | +11.9wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +178.2%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x45bc…f3febacked Yes | 30c | 499.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 34c | 434.43$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.44 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +15.2wins | +0.28per pick | 31cpaid | +73.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked No | 35c | 388.34$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33a0…5c7abacked Yes | 30c | 330.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc52e…fc6bbacked Yes | 45c | 247.87$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c4…ade9backed Yes | 20c | 201.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 71c | 200.66$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 167 | 46.1%77 W · 90 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 65c | 188.37$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.25 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbd…6e72backed No | 51c | 160.23$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.81 | 83 | 54.2%45 W · 38 L | +18.2wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4619…3f91backed No | 66c | 158.47$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.91 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 40c | 135.55$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.22 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf616…a92bbacked Yes | 11c | 112.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 35c | 104.85$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 72c | 102.45$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc533…1a7abacked Yes | 25c | 95.83$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 76c | 89.41$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 60c | 84.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.74 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 71c | 82.91$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef4e…3ab1backed Yes | 26c | 77.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…d2abbacked Yes | 40c | 65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36ba…5300backed Yes | 31c | 63.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fc…950dbacked Yes | 24c | 61.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x736e…e8c2backed Yes | 35c | 57.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee8a…f0b0backed Yes | 68c | 56.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4617…0c10backed Yes | 28c | 52.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbee7…dc3abacked No | 67c | 52.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +135.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe257…26f0backed Yes | 63c | 50.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe672…2b03backed Yes | 25c | 48.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 41c | 44.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8264…a983backed Yes | 26c | 42.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa56d…b638backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 32c | 39.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa752…3b34backed Yes | 38c | 34.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6496…410fbacked Yes | 49c | 30.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de3…e30bbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0558…6d24backed No | 69c | 25.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 75c | 19.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win <25 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?this page
- Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win 25-29 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?Yes won
- Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win 30-34 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win 35-39 seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?No won
- Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win 40+ seats in the Slovenian National Assembly in this election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.