Movies · resolved market
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2fea82f39ca49095fbfee59f299c12b5f0443cc76c999b9987cfbe32c848548
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 29c | 1,523$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.02 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…abd5backed Yes | 70c | 999.77$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.06 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes | 72c | 772$556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.16 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 68c | 568$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.34 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed Yes | 67c | 561$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.13 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -37%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x255f…c6d4backed Yes | 76c | 534$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.36 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…f315backed No | 33c | 480$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.4 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked No | 28c | 478$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.84 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 31c | 427$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.39 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe433…1700backed No | 28c | 417$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.76 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 30c | 358$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.98 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…6069backed No | 33c | 278.93$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.08 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 68c | 223.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.16 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f3…09e0backed No | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 16c | 167.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 131 | 30.5%40 W · 91 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x416b…bad6backed Yes | 62c | 165.5$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 53c | 132.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.85 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf25d…8b1ebacked Yes | 67c | 105$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 65c | 103.74$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 206 | 68.9%142 W · 64 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7410…ad32backed Yes | 72c | 95$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 26c | 67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 112 | 40.2%45 W · 67 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c3…4c56backed No | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9368…6f3fbacked Yes | 78c | 51.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 54c | 51.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 1,218 | 17.8%217 W · 1,001 L | -124.0wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9527…9602backed No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +115.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 59c | 48.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.71 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d8…2542backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bf…e6dbbacked No | 34c | 38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d20…768bbacked Yes | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa64…09bebacked Yes | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7349…8a6dbacked Yes | 74c | 33.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b3…2367backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed Yes | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…3b00backed Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 72c | 15.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.21 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?this page
- Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?No won
- Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?No won
- Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?No won
- Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.