Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$160 in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb026b2aac8c2ced04f73f7b0a2675f7f46d10de6c696a02605045d80696246ce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $65,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x002e…cb8dbacked Yes | 0c | 3,335$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 10c | 1,770$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.94 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…c46fbacked Yes | 13c | 900$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 7c | 832.91$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.31 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 9c | 784$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.47 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc632…55bebacked Yes | 16c | 639.02$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 537.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 9c | 500$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec95…f4adbacked Yes | 21c | 486.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 14c | 357.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…bfc5backed Yes | 16c | 337.76$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…1f46backed Yes | 17c | 312.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -66%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4853…fb59backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…d260backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43af…13c7backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b0…ec40backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd520…5bc3backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcac8…0cd9backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…11a6backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee2…436abacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…63f7backed Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b1…2c4ebacked Yes | 19c | 287.66$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc2…c580backed Yes | 7c | 278.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4d…67cabacked Yes | 7c | 250.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 7c | 250$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9f…cc1dbacked Yes | 14c | 223.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ff…ee4ebacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42d…0ca3backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 8c | 150.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9975…1b85backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5b…4a6dbacked Yes | 22c | 112$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…c417backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a1…7c2bbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 75c | 79.59$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5e…c0a6backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d08…3defbacked No | 78c | 56.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb65e…3e11backed No | 75c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 79c | 21.18$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$160 in 2025?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $160–165 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $165–170 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $170–175 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $175–180 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $180–185 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $185–190 in 2025?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $190–195 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $195–200 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $200–205 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $205–210 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $210–215 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $215–220 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$220 in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.