TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $190–195 in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$34,707
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,797

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,707 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x19bc…511abacked Yes23c2,863$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.09616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9622…01efbacked Yes13c2,491$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes16c2,429$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.8281240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed Yes18c1,480$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.2599038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes23c790.22$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.446631.8%21 W · 45 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94cf…3db3backed Yes19c700$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No77c578.17$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.47332.9%24 W · 49 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa78…f40bbacked Yes19c512.4$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3713751.1%70 W · 67 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4e0…9563backed Yes9c505.4$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes13c455.73$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.188524.7%21 W · 64 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x622f…9992backed Yes23c407.84$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4410442.3%44 W · 60 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xacfb…ac3ebacked Yes25c404.5$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9430%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8026…2f99backed Yes3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x662a…77b7backed Yes22c340.77$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.4430%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe19…b213backed Yes16c325.5$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfce…80c7backed Yes18c304.35$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.51225%3 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41a0…4dbbbacked Yes33c300.6$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5df1…2da7backed Yes16c300$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82a0…14b3backed Yes30c261.57$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.421618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1033…d851backed Yes40c250.42$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No80c241.21$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.2317049.4%84 W · 86 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-11.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes16c231.85$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5556548.7%275 W · 290 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes17c230.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4024356.8%138 W · 105 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes17c210.96$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.1527429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes8c208.57$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.931010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3442…f45cbacked Yes10c206.1$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbbe…b616backed Yes24c205.1$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9975…1b85backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1288…dac9backed Yes25c199.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-64.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5626…71c7backed Yes18c162.51$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.44333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+117.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe1a…aceabacked Yes22c158.47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.38520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes18c158.2$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.341,4448.8%127 W · 1,317 L-53.5wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3355…3119backed Yes27c152.61$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed Yes11c145.71$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9a8…416cbacked Yes12c142.81$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1fc5…e524backed Yes9c135$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes13c126$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.812512%3 W · 22 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes19c123.42$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7aa…9c54backed Yes25c120$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1af3…1d1ebacked Yes49c117.53$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a39…031abacked Yes17c114.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No78c106.66$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.045964.4%38 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick58cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x404a…19b2backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2c3…eed9backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x25b3…2763backed Yes16c92.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.61618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66ca…0db6backed Yes28c92$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.91633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+42.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x595a…2fd9backed Yes29c91$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d7b…a54bbacked Yes23c86.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe092…9f1abacked Yes24c84.58$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4eb3…9b4abacked Yes24c82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x534a…0575backed Yes23c80$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b6d…40a8backed Yes19c77.54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No72c68.26$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.9821820.2%44 W · 174 L-22.2wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-54.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb15b…5215backed Yes20c65.37$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.07650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf21…be19backed Yes33c65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1648234%164 W · 318 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-10%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xca88…efb2backed Yes32c62.7$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes24c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.416418.9%31 W · 133 L-16.7wins-0.10per pick29cpaid-45%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8b43…85afbacked Yes20c54.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No80c52.78$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.564452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cf…47eebacked Yes26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed No69c46.64$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.659124.2%22 W · 69 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick32cpaid-25.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No79c35$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5210749.5%53 W · 54 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3100…716bbacked Yes49c23.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26d6…7762backed No80c23.1$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfef3…7784backed No80c19.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.