Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $190–195 in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7f514b5494ddb4a1c214d7dfad808ccda9fe18a2c9b377543e978af3c6ae515
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,707
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,797
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,707 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x19bc…511abacked Yes | 23c | 2,863$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$663.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9622…01efbacked Yes | 13c | 2,491$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 16c | 2,429$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.82 | 812 | 40.3%327 W · 485 L | +37.1wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed Yes | 18c | 1,480$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.25 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 23c | 790.22$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.44 | 66 | 31.8%21 W · 45 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94cf…3db3backed Yes | 19c | 700$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 77c | 578.17$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.4 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa78…f40bbacked Yes | 19c | 512.4$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.37 | 137 | 51.1%70 W · 67 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e0…9563backed Yes | 9c | 505.4$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 13c | 455.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed Yes | 23c | 407.84$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.44 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacfb…ac3ebacked Yes | 25c | 404.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8026…2f99backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x662a…77b7backed Yes | 22c | 340.77$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe19…b213backed Yes | 16c | 325.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 18c | 304.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a0…4dbbbacked Yes | 33c | 300.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df1…2da7backed Yes | 16c | 300$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…14b3backed Yes | 30c | 261.57$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.42 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Yes | 40c | 250.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 241.21$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 16c | 231.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 17c | 230.44$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 210.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 8c | 208.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3442…f45cbacked Yes | 10c | 206.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbbe…b616backed Yes | 24c | 205.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9975…1b85backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1288…dac9backed Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5626…71c7backed Yes | 18c | 162.51$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +117.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…aceabacked Yes | 22c | 158.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 158.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3355…3119backed Yes | 27c | 152.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ae…f471backed Yes | 11c | 145.71$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a8…416cbacked Yes | 12c | 142.81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc5…e524backed Yes | 9c | 135$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 13c | 126$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51ce…43fabacked Yes | 19c | 123.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7aa…9c54backed Yes | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…1d1ebacked Yes | 49c | 117.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a39…031abacked Yes | 17c | 114.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 78c | 106.66$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x404a…19b2backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c3…eed9backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b3…2763backed Yes | 16c | 92.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ca…0db6backed Yes | 28c | 92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x595a…2fd9backed Yes | 29c | 91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7b…a54bbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe092…9f1abacked Yes | 24c | 84.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb3…9b4abacked Yes | 24c | 82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x534a…0575backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6d…40a8backed Yes | 19c | 77.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 72c | 68.26$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb15b…5215backed Yes | 20c | 65.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 33c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca88…efb2backed Yes | 32c | 62.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -16.7wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b43…85afbacked Yes | 20c | 54.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 80c | 52.78$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…47eebacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 69c | 46.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.65 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 79c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…716bbacked Yes | 49c | 23.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…7762backed No | 80c | 23.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfef3…7784backed No | 80c | 19.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $190–195 in 2025?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $160–165 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $165–170 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $170–175 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $175–180 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $180–185 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $185–190 in 2025?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $195–200 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $200–205 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $205–210 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $210–215 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $215–220 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$160 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$220 in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.