TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Stocks · resolved market

Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $185–190 in 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$51,543
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,788

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,543 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Stocks
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaee8…1154backed Yes33c2,291$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,544.192119%4 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-62.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x829b…0473backed No1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19bc…511abacked Yes30c1,787$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,251.67616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x941b…e07dbacked Yes35c1,100$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.31250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+44.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes75c1,049$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.3935151.6%181 W · 170 L+19.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d26…3286backed Yes76c1,039$791 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.14666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x622f…9992backed Yes31c1,000$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.1210442.3%44 W · 60 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-18.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8cb4…b997backed No73c806.4$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.1699038%376 W · 614 L+2.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No50c709.62$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.557332.9%24 W · 49 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x198c…f1a6backed No3c689.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No68c680.64$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.5181240.3%327 W · 485 L+37.1wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8616…3496backed Yes32c663.97$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.42922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No19c638.75$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.589026.7%24 W · 66 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-35.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5964…7a94backed Yes80c533.79$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5626…71c7backed Yes15c493.43$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.69333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+117.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No69c462.91$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.3956548.7%275 W · 290 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25b3…2763backed Yes31c456.32$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.811618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4020…11d1backed Yes76c435.2$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd059…2a48backed Yes73c429.88$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e44…94fabacked Yes72c383.55$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c30…7673backed Yes51c340$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.22466.7%16 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82a0…14b3backed Yes17c300.53$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.131618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-42.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb8f…812bbacked Yes23c249.47$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.18616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-28.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ae…f471backed No13c240$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.330%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41a0…4dbbbacked Yes45c224.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No32c209.1$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.424452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x801e…8692backed No21c208.82$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed No19c200$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-26.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked No15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9b8d…4e9abacked No16c199.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes9c187.25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.271505.3%8 W · 142 L+0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe1a…aceabacked Yes32c180$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.6520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-37.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c176.12$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11986338.1%329 W · 534 L-43.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No19c172.53$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.58524.7%21 W · 64 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x143a…874fbacked Yes12c169.96$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.96425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+102.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4657…a752backed Yes78c153.19$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No48c151.93$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.9527429.2%80 W · 194 L-16.6wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-42.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfbbe…b616backed Yes34c148.21$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.41741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfce…80c7backed Yes21c138.68$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.931225%3 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b47…4a8fbacked Yes72c138.31$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8330…b88fbacked No30c133.33$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-20.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x65fe…4953backed Yes75c133.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes53c130.58$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.856631.8%21 W · 45 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x042a…7f4cbacked Yes79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb15b…5215backed Yes70c125.55$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.92650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4335…3b30backed Yes75c116.12$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes32c111.12$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.811,4438.8%127 W · 1,316 L-53.1wins-0.04per pick12cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6205…d7b8backed Yes16c108.69$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bb8…71f0backed Yes31c108.39$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.79333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes27c106.22$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.3422129%64 W · 157 L-14.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-22%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa78…f40bbacked Yes37c101.38$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.513751.1%70 W · 67 L+7.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ac2…9895backed Yes80c100.08$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2c3…eed9backed Yes73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.53100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1608…9ce2backed Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No21c96.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203630.6%11 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+27%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes72c91.95$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.75742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-24.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5034…3225backed Yes72c85.69$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca89…a9f6backed Yes67c85.54$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d16…e0c3backed Yes38c82.05$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.05450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x534a…0575backed Yes34c80$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.6333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1718…f23ebacked Yes61c75.87$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe426…7472backed Yes70c71.83$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x619a…02b6backed Yes71c70.78$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes26c66.37$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.3624356.8%138 W · 105 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4470…7351backed Yes31c64.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f3…20dbbacked Yes16c62.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b6e…8d08backed Yes71c61.81$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No21c60.47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.98219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-61.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d7b…a54bbacked Yes30c59.49$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.492441.7%10 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe092…9f1abacked Yes35c56.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.76450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4a…f8f3backed Yes73c54.67$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa6…03ebbacked Yes71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.52100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No74c50$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376141%25 W · 36 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-21.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f1f…94aabacked Yes73c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a88…2bffbacked No30c40.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x914d…595cbacked Yes72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed Yes40c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8a9…bc27backed Yes41c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick41cpaid+146.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9add…9393backed No25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc22…ee03backed Yes52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x056d…ec6ebacked Yes73c36.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd96b…46dfbacked Yes70c34.15$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick39cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfef9…a843backed Yes74c33.78$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x440a…9599backed Yes32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5889…2770backed Yes66c30.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x358e…3754backed Yes66c30.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b86…3010backed Yes70c29.99$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6410…68efbacked Yes45c28.89$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.892100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+77.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ab…cf67backed Yes71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes55c28.01$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.695100%5 W · 0 L+2.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+268%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe358…6878backed Yes72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x330f…01d6backed Yes74c26.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-32.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b00…3b6bbacked Yes73c26.03$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed Yes77c25.8$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.977577.3%58 W · 17 L+5.6wins+0.08per pick70cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc9c…18fbbacked Yes79c25.23$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.231100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8747…dd9dbacked No69c22.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec3c…02adbacked No73c21.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.771850%9 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa507…fe4fbacked Yes71c21.13$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x819c…1aefbacked No55c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.