Stocks · resolved market
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $180–185 in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf7d580f4005e684955a8ea2274da1615b97dfa1ab2d2a083af888fcdfad0ac33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e29…9ac6backed Yes | 1c | 3,389$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 19c | 2,306$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.07 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…511abacked Yes | 20c | 1,787$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x941b…e07dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,100$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…3496backed Yes | 18c | 616.89$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…d1f6backed Yes | 14c | 599.98$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4083…308fbacked Yes | 2c | 599.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 482 | 34%164 W · 318 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b3…2763backed Yes | 22c | 498.95$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.06 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…924abacked Yes | 20c | 473.15$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662a…77b7backed Yes | 6c | 340.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 13c | 336.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -22.2wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5665…32cdbacked Yes | 16c | 318.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 18c | 310.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 351 | 51.6%181 W · 170 L | +19.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 18c | 309.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.95 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…793dbacked Yes | 22c | 308.91$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 13c | 302.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 85 | 24.7%21 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…14b3backed Yes | 14c | 300.51$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.63 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 5c | 290.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x294d…b362backed Yes | 17c | 287.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb861…d261backed Yes | 6c | 218.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…514cbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 19c | 155.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26ea…9982backed Yes | 13c | 152.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…aceabacked Yes | 11c | 151.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 15c | 118.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f67…1477backed Yes | 11c | 118.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58ff…7e02backed Yes | 10c | 109.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb8…71f0backed Yes | 23c | 108.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc81…3cc7backed Yes | 9c | 105.49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…9ce2backed Yes | 25c | 101.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabaa…f18ebacked Yes | 25c | 100.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 78c | 88.33$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 221 | 29%64 W · 157 L | -14.1wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…e0c3backed Yes | 23c | 82.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x534a…0575backed Yes | 25c | 73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099d…8c53backed Yes | 18c | 69.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 19c | 56.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x143a…874fbacked Yes | 30c | 53.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +102.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 78c | 51.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 77cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 80c | 42.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 75 | 77.3%58 W · 17 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0a…c378backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +268%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $180–185 in 2025?this page
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $160–165 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $165–170 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $170–175 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $175–180 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $185–190 in 2025?Yes won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $190–195 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $195–200 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $200–205 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $205–210 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $210–215 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at $215–220 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$160 in 2025?No won
- Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at >$220 in 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.