TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Knicks vs. Hawks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Knicksof Knicks, Hawks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,633,320
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,082,168

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,633,320 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,569 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Knicks76c555,096$419,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135,339.7766248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe934…640bbacked Hawks52c200,000$104,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103,999.993860.5%23 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x959a…7b64backed Knicks47c162,334$76,571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85,763.793357.6%19 W · 14 L+5.3wins+0.16per pick41cpaid+42%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1961…c461backed Hawks53c91,854$48,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48,682.598750.6%44 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x05d5…db37backed Hawks0c82,607$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.612356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaaaf…6c31backed Hawks48c70,517$33,732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,732.1560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c15…9a45backed Hawks53c70,111$36,909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,909.1311137.8%42 W · 69 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Hawks52c63,945$33,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,276.191,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Hawks52c61,564$32,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,195.4120744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Knicks48c60,550$29,064 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,48636549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Knicks55c58,380$32,109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,27148352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf65…9194backed Knicks47c50,997$23,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,028.15742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Hawks18c33,495$6,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,111.471,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x073a…91e7backed Knicks47c32,045$15,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,983.983641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Hawks59c31,823$18,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,920.925,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4f5…1079backed Knicks53c31,740$16,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,906.855048%24 W · 26 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Hawks47c31,038$14,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,451.0170147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Hawks42c26,876$11,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,377.8210239.2%40 W · 62 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8718…5040backed Hawks73c25,764$18,807 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,807.424257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Hawks52c25,000$13,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,00014243%61 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8516…93a0backed Knicks38c24,592$9,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,206.028035%28 W · 52 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Hawks36c24,211$8,745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,745.013,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Hawks32c24,179$7,717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,716.922,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Hawks46c22,978$10,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,466.771,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Hawks52c21,100$10,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,97262347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Hawks50c18,170$9,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,155.7211335.4%40 W · 73 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x92b5…fec6backed Knicks58c17,482$10,151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,330.9310747.7%51 W · 56 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Knicks48c15,138$7,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,871.54847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5798…ab44backed Hawks52c15,000$7,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,80015740.8%64 W · 93 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Hawks49c15,000$7,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,399.9620454.9%112 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Hawks54c14,406$7,779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,779.242348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa75…f082backed Hawks52c14,008$7,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,284.021729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-35.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4219…7855backed Knicks50c11,964$5,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,981.774259.5%25 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Hawks52c11,825$6,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,149.171,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Hawks46c11,741$5,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,395.712,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Knicks48c11,214$5,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,831.354,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8781…bc3cbacked Hawks6c11,056$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$614.581145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick29cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Hawks3c10,990$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.71,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b0d…90c0backed Hawks52c10,846$5,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,640.018834.1%30 W · 58 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ff…f0c4backed Knicks35c10,138$3,575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,562.647147.9%34 W · 37 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23ba…01ecbacked Knicks48c10,092$4,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,247.671020%2 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-55.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Knicks48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,199.9821951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Knicks48c10,000$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,199.9649244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8650…b8babacked Knicks47c9,970$4,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,263.962556%14 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked Knicks48c9,877$4,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,135.9513442.5%57 W · 77 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7248…8cb4backed Hawks52c9,609$4,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,996.428948.3%43 W · 46 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Knicks47c9,600$4,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,08819653.6%105 W · 91 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Knicks47c9,598$4,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,086.942,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Knicks49c9,474$4,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,831.941,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff12…09f9backed Knicks71c9,402$6,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,758.8819388.1%170 W · 23 L+48.6wins+0.25per pick63cpaid+46.2%equal weight75+0.22 edge/pick
0x5db5…1a50backed Hawks52c9,338$4,856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8564845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde3…4a49backed Knicks66c8,882$5,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,019.8127251.1%139 W · 133 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Hawks52c8,000$4,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,12043438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Hawks52c8,000$4,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,119.9886641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Hawks52c7,884$4,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,082.34,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f5b…e747backed Hawks52c7,500$3,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,864.9965939.5%260 W · 399 L-13.1wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Knicks47c7,194$3,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,812.629,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Knicks54c7,152$3,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,289.926841.2%28 W · 40 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d13…643cbacked Knicks45c7,055$3,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,903.1914338.5%55 W · 88 L-18.4wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-28.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Knicks48c7,000$3,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,639.8858951.3%302 W · 287 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22d0…6293backed Hawks52c6,512$3,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,386.1910451%53 W · 51 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc532…3b9dbacked Knicks47c6,454$3,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,420.62944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Hawks52c6,237$3,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,235.1332540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ba…3c6cbacked Hawks52c6,000$3,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,09623742.6%101 W · 136 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24b3…a5a4backed Knicks49c5,737$2,811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,926.0111249.1%55 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Hawks56c5,563$3,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,136.851,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Knicks39c5,555$2,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,388.5576850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Hawks59c5,534$3,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,265.0415644.9%70 W · 86 L-9.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x71e1…45f0backed Knicks48c5,400$2,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8082330.4%7 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-26.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Hawks42c5,250$2,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,204.9910743%46 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Hawks1c5,225$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.253179.5%30 W · 287 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Hawks2c5,222$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.164517.1%110 W · 535 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-44.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e59…307dbacked Hawks53c5,156$2,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,740.748859.1%52 W · 36 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Hawks55c5,063$2,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,807.858953.7%316 W · 273 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Knicks44c5,039$2,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,844.252,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Hawks55c5,039$2,769 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,768.6490650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Hawks52c5,000$2,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,581.895641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7a6…89b2backed Knicks47c5,000$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,65014244.4%63 W · 79 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Knicks39c5,000$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,05035444.6%158 W · 196 L+1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Hawks51c5,000$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,549.938445.2%38 W · 46 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc936…6029backed Knicks48c4,969$2,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,583.95560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3354…5042backed Hawks66c4,895$3,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,229.7616959.8%101 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2c3…8b21backed Hawks46c4,856$2,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,233.783360.6%20 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e59…beeebacked Knicks49c4,824$2,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,460.2212257.4%70 W · 52 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ec7…2b6bbacked Knicks44c4,802$2,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,680.64055%22 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6658…8afdbacked Knicks47c4,626$2,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,439.95856.9%33 W · 25 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x497c…a617backed Hawks52c4,454$2,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,316.31742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Hawks52c4,366$2,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,270.194753.2%25 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+66.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Knicks38c4,238$1,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,632.633139.3%130 W · 201 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Knicks47c4,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1201,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Knicks48c4,000$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,079.9915219.1%29 W · 123 L-10.1wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-68.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xff5b…c583backed Hawks52c4,000$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,079.9520847.6%99 W · 109 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1dbf…7776backed Hawks51c3,972$2,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,025.5518343.7%80 W · 103 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Knicks48c3,970$1,921 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0492,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Hawks59c3,956$2,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,352.681,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Knicks49c3,951$1,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,015.0261851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59c0…cd82backed Hawks52c3,934$2,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,045.75650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Knicks59c3,859$2,277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,58212143%52 W · 69 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Knicks46c3,817$1,756 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,061.1161336.1%221 W · 392 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3495…dca1backed Hawks52c3,756$1,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,953.35771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick62cpaid+10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.