NBA · resolved market
Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 22.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d92ef2f1abfbd9a3d4b59e93fd3823f61754b38958d1e7e36ccc02b6959ce67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,606
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,767
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,606 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed No | 60c | 1,236$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.4 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 52c | 561.96$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.17 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Yes | 48c | 501.01$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.67 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 49c | 345.23$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.83 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfccc…d978backed Yes | 44c | 265.7$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Yes | 39c | 232.2$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.56 | 714 | 49.3%352 W · 362 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99be…3622backed Yes | 44c | 194.84$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.06 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6c…df05backed Yes | 56c | 107.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed No | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 400 | 53.5%214 W · 186 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked Yes | 39c | 82.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.13 | 164 | 50%82 W · 82 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Yes | 48c | 59.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 302 | 56.6%171 W · 131 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Yes | 39c | 49.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes | 48c | 49.07$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed No | 52c | 30.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Yes | 40c | 27.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 560 | 43.9%246 W · 314 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Yes | 45c | 24.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 898 | 53.1%477 W · 421 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jalen Johnson: Points O/U 22.5this page
- CJ McCollum: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- Knicks vs. HawksKnicks won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: 1H O/U 118.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 226.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 227.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 228.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 229.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Hawks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Mikal Bridges: Points O/U 13.5Yes won
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker: Points O/U 18.5Yes won
- OG Anunoby: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Onyeka Okongwu: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Spread: Hawks (-2.5)Knicks won
- Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Knicks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.