NBA · resolved market
LeBron James: Points O/U 19.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16ddceb83e4fda790a4c9844db390f72979c0e06d3c47546a7c84eeefe2d20e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,959
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed Yes | 37c | 1,115$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.85 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 63c | 800$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa382…ed19backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 64c | 232.63$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.75 | 92 | 67.4%62 W · 30 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 39c | 187.26$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.57 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked No | 61c | 165.1$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 364 | 53%193 W · 171 L | -17.0wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea60…e977backed No | 67c | 148.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.58 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked No | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 931 | 45.8%426 W · 505 L | -25.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed Yes | 25c | 85.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d00…7507backed No | 50c | 82$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 38c | 52.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2c…9374backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7322…bccebacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…8cc1backed No | 48c | 38.46$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,084 | 42.4%460 W · 624 L | -48.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 52c | 26.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…9d8bbacked No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 300 | 55.7%167 W · 133 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e85…788bbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- LeBron James: Points O/U 19.5this page
- 1H Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Lakers won
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5No won
- Josh Hart: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 10.5Yes won
- Knicks vs. LakersLakers won
- Knicks vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
- Knicks vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5Under won
- Knicks vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5Under won
- Landry Shamet: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Luka Dončić: Points O/U 29.5Yes won
- Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Marcus Smart: Points O/U 7.5No won
- Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Spread: Knicks (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.