NBA · resolved market

Spread: Knicks (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4cc4a1fbedb3076a0ae08f14bc33a87ec746f8468cc297b2220b41aa42f9ff76

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Lakersof Knicks, Lakers
Resolved: Mar 8, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $128,304

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $128,304 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Lakers	43c	22,111$9,604 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12,507.4	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Knicks	60c	20,536$12,278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12,278.14	365	49.6%181 W · 184 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Knicks	55c	6,325$3,473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,472.56	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lakers	42c	6,210$2,607 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,602.27	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Knicks	54c	5,000$2,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,700	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Lakers	44c	4,746$2,102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,644.09	4,325	47%2,031 W · 2,294 L	-69.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Knicks	55c	4,463$2,451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,451.41	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x07d8…9f3fbacked Lakers	48c	2,917$1,400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,516.67	32	40.6%13 W · 19 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Lakers	43c	2,757$1,182 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,574.86	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0500…6158backed Lakers	48c	2,563$1,230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,332.79	121	51.2%62 W · 59 L	+3.8wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Knicks	52c	2,547$1,324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,323.92	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Knicks	60c	2,500$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	122	45.1%55 W · 67 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a91…1769backed Lakers	48c	2,500$1,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,300	321	50.8%163 W · 158 L	+5.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Lakers	40c	2,394$958 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,436.47	662	48.5%321 W · 341 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Lakers	48c	2,100$1,008 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,092	1,910	54.3%1,038 W · 872 L	+25.2wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Lakers	53c	1,985$1,057 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$928.19	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00d5…ed84backed Knicks	53c	1,886$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.5	170	50%85 W · 85 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Knicks	54c	1,800$966 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$966.24	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca5…73bcbacked Knicks	54c	1,307$706 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$706	404	51.5%208 W · 196 L	-7.4wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Lakers	50c	1,121$561 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$560.7	824	42.2%348 W · 476 L	-3.7wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Lakers	50c	1,000$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500	517	53.8%278 W · 239 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad40…a697backed Knicks	53c	852.07$452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$451.5	44	54.5%24 W · 20 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Lakers	52c	789.27$414 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$375.45	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ede…6c27backed Lakers	48c	730.33$348 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$382.06	451	51.4%232 W · 219 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Lakers	40c	598.33$237 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$361.69	288	42.7%123 W · 165 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Lakers	45c	577.93$258 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$319.93	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff5…f136backed Knicks	54c	518.52$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	260	48.1%125 W · 135 L	-15.1wins	-0.06per pick	54cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Lakers	58c	491.02$285 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$206.23	1,645	47.5%782 W · 863 L	+40.9wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x054b…afd5backed Lakers	48c	416.67$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$216.67	205	52.2%107 W · 98 L	+4.0wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Lakers	41c	390.49$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$230.49	521	46.6%243 W · 278 L	-14.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Knicks	54c	370.37$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	232	51.7%120 W · 112 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Lakers	42c	307.55$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$178.1	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5124…91bbbacked Lakers	43c	288$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$164.16	354	44.6%158 W · 196 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x682f…3265backed Knicks	54c	277.78$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	1,389	54.9%762 W · 627 L	+16.7wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Lakers	41c	244.15$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.15	434	47.5%206 W · 228 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Lakers	43c	217.39$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.06	1,433	47.2%676 W · 757 L	-12.8wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa61f…7993backed Knicks	53c	200$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106	617	47.8%295 W · 322 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Knicks	52c	200$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	333	60.4%201 W · 132 L	+17.6wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9135…a63ebacked Knicks	31c	198.93$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.38	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Knicks	53c	167.9$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.17	3,120	44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L	-7.6wins	0.00per pick	45cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Knicks	52c	160$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.2	955	48.5%463 W · 492 L	-3.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Knicks	45c	146.89$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.45	1,425	47.7%680 W · 745 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17b5…ae57backed Lakers	65c	143.08$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.08	69	46.4%32 W · 37 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2a0…1f3dbacked Knicks	46c	130.14$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	167	25.7%43 W · 124 L	-12.4wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xea33…ae06backed Knicks	57c	129$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.53	117	59.8%70 W · 47 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Lakers	57c	123.94$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.29	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b67…e889backed Knicks	55c	119.81$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.29	109	51.4%56 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Knicks	52c	113.2$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.76	765	52.9%405 W · 360 L	-2.9wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Lakers	43c	108.26$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.19	1,197	48.9%585 W · 612 L	-14.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe276…a85bbacked Knicks	53c	101.5$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.8	125	52%65 W · 60 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1adb…f12abacked Knicks	54c	97$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.38	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	-3.6wins	-0.07per pick	52cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0b3…091cbacked Lakers	46c	97$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.38	82	51.2%42 W · 40 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	0%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ba…5afbbacked Knicks	52c	96.15$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	11	81.8%9 W · 2 L	+3.2wins	+0.29per pick	53cpaid	+54.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe648…51bcbacked Lakers	42c	95.48$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.48	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.4wins	+0.36per pick	39cpaid	+84.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Knicks	53c	85.8$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.61	329	52.9%174 W · 155 L	-11.7wins	-0.04per pick	56cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a38…d420backed Knicks	54c	75$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	116	52.6%61 W · 55 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Lakers	54c	73.33$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.73	293	52.6%154 W · 139 L	+14.1wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+26%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Knicks	56c	69.64$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	535	39.6%212 W · 323 L	-11.9wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Knicks	52c	68.58$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	548	54.2%297 W · 251 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68db…ee32backed Knicks	59c	67.8$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	84	53.6%45 W · 39 L	-7.7wins	-0.09per pick	63cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Lakers	45c	63.9$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.4	1,633	41.2%672 W · 961 L	+26.3wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd0a1…6daebacked Lakers	48c	62.63$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.63	224	42.9%96 W · 128 L	-5.9wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Lakers	47c	61.9$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.8	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Knicks	27c	60$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	1,554	37.3%579 W · 975 L	-48.1wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Knicks	57c	52.53$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.94	1,634	48.1%786 W · 848 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Knicks	53c	50.94$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabae…d62dbacked Lakers	47c	50$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.5	81	45.7%37 W · 44 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fbd…b8d3backed Knicks	54c	49.91$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.95	672	48.8%328 W · 344 L	-10.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaec…eaafbacked Knicks	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	293	48.5%142 W · 151 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe97…89e1backed Knicks	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	282	51.8%146 W · 136 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2db5…8a96backed Knicks	53c	37.74$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	78	42.3%33 W · 45 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x45d2…22fbbacked Knicks	54c	31.48$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	113	48.7%55 W · 58 L	-5.7wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Knicks	53c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	879	50.6%445 W · 434 L	-16.0wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Lakers	54c	29.98$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.79	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8cf2…5803backed Knicks	54c	27.78$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3f5e…94e9backed Lakers	47c	27.72$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.63	227	46.3%105 W · 122 L	-8.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x35e4…5946backed Lakers	47c	21.96$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.64	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.18per pick	16cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c2f…5f91backed Knicks	55c	21.82$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	41	41.5%17 W · 24 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	49cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Lakers	48c	21.36$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.11	911	48.1%438 W · 473 L	-11.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe74e…90b6backed Knicks	55c	18.55$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	82	48.8%40 W · 42 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Knicks (-2.5)this page
1H Spread: Knicks (-1.5)Lakers won
Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
Austin Reaves: Points O/U 19.5Yes won
Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
Jalen Brunson: Assists O/U 7.5No won
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 25.5No won
Josh Hart: Points O/U 10.5No won
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 10.5Yes won
Knicks vs. LakersLakers won
Knicks vs. Lakers: 1H MoneylineLakers won
Knicks vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 116.5Under won
Knicks vs. Lakers: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
Knicks vs. Lakers: O/U 226.5Under won
Knicks vs. Lakers: O/U 227.5Under won
Knicks vs. Lakers: O/U 228.5Under won
Landry Shamet: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
LeBron James: Assists O/U 5.5No won
LeBron James: Points O/U 19.5No won
LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 5.5No won
Luka Dončić: Assists O/U 7.5No won
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 29.5Yes won
Marcus Smart: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
Marcus Smart: Points O/U 7.5No won
Mikal Bridges: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
Mikal Bridges: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
OG Anunoby: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Spread: Knicks (-3.5)Lakers won
Spread: Knicks (-4.5)Lakers won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Knicks (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event