TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Luka Dončić: Points O/U 29.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,240

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,240 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe401…7b88backed No39c1,311$515 inLost-$515.265,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes64c559.72$360 inWon+$200.091,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes58c518.36$300 inWon+$218.3619951.8%103 W · 96 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed No41c304.22$124 inLost-$123.931,91145.4%868 W · 1,043 L+22.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No43c253.89$109 inLost-$109.172,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea60…e977backed Yes49c244.82$120 inWon+$124.829159.3%54 W · 37 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4ad…4c1fbacked Yes64c243.07$155 inWon+$87.74259.5%25 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb9…6a60backed Yes59c203.77$120 inWon+$83.772142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d54…a756backed Yes63c200$126 inWon+$745942.4%25 W · 34 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed No42c152.17$65 inLost-$64.513,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48cf…c7dfbacked Yes57c105.14$60 inWon+$45.1436453%193 W · 171 L-17.0wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9901…6adbbacked Yes56c101.13$57 inWon+$44.1313843.5%60 W · 78 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No37c81$30 inLost-$29.754,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No25c60$15 inLost-$151,55437.3%579 W · 975 L-48.1wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b51…da79backed Yes61c50$31 inWon+$19.465527.3%15 W · 40 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No42c48$20 inLost-$20.1665630.2%198 W · 458 L-86.7wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-42.7%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked Yes58c46.88$27 inWon+$19.5924955%137 W · 112 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed No44c35.54$16 inLost-$15.711,08442.4%460 W · 624 L-48.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa24a…5327backed Yes60c33.33$20 inWon+$13.332100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed No42c31.01$13 inLost-$12.9483158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed No44c30$13 inLost-$13.3113850%69 W · 69 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5da…7f7fbacked No65c20$13 inLost-$13.042646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.