TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Crypto Milestones · resolved market

Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in January?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$170,782
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$206,245

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,782 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes1c20,028$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.784754.6%22 W · 453 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick2cpaid+144.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7b8…2c1fbacked Yes37c9,383$3,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,513.336642.4%28 W · 38 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7655…5661backed Yes1c8,360$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463930.8%12 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-40.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5145…2dd5backed Yes2c5,569$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.771136.4%4 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.23per pick14cpaid+155%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa74c…00dcbacked Yes1c4,000$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+318.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes1c3,311$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.224163.1%13 W · 403 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46eb…ba8cbacked Yes3c3,000$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9070%0 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d47…e7a0backed Yes15c2,741$415 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.91250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-29%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e14…3003backed Yes29c2,527$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.3412020%24 W · 96 L+5.7wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+43.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6993…c79abacked Yes0c2,512$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2270%0 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbcf7…b2bdbacked Yes33c2,354$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.2520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-74.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cc3…edf0backed Yes16c1,920$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.825425.9%14 W · 40 L+5.8wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+37.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes21c1,837$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.183910.3%4 W · 35 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick13cpaid+155.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c1,788$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.931,8444.4%81 W · 1,763 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-42.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8317…6af6backed No35c1,755$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,139.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+185.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5ac…557cbacked Yes71c1,689$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,20010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes1c1,624$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.016785.9%40 W · 638 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed No76c1,600$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.994564.4%29 W · 16 L+4.5wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+10.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d75…c6f1backed Yes30c1,317$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.15812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick28cpaid-84.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c1,091$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.782417.1%17 W · 224 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25af…bcafbacked Yes2c1,015$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.193998.5%34 W · 365 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef10…97edbacked Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201010%1 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-60%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes1c933.25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.725817.2%10 W · 48 L+8.5wins+0.15per pick3cpaid+321.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8f14…1e77backed No77c859.07$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.6610100%10 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+41.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfd09…9c71backed No61c820$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320.022462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7f1…28acbacked Yes50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b1e…65a5backed Yes33c680.86$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae9d…abe7backed No49c679.86$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.23633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x308a…95ffbacked Yes62c660.04$412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$411.85977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+41.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe29e…0507backed No74c567.68$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.681861.1%11 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8580…d162backed Yes3c529.28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aea…b686backed Yes21c500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1053228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-31.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67b0…a265backed Yes2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cf1…8277backed Yes62c441.56$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.8470%0 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d74…e462backed No35c420.38$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid+44%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e27…9890backed No75c406.65$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.731573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+44.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9bec…f7b7backed Yes25c400$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+231.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff47…a1c3backed No69c389.43$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x491f…d8d4backed Yes8c365.1$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17c5…7c9fbacked No69c352.94$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.542100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9acf…5d8fbacked Yes14c344.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick11cpaid+770.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f32…3e2cbacked Yes30c309$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.061241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick28cpaid-21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ede…e0e8backed Yes33c301.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001723.5%4 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+65.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09e3…48acbacked Yes65c300$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6cb…3f69backed Yes46c300$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-75.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6408…c7aebacked Yes24c300$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$725024%12 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4be5…c1b3backed Yes77c300$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23120%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x25dc…e33bbacked No78c258.72$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7313053.8%70 W · 60 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28c6…2e08backed Yes21c243$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.6333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+352.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes12c237.79$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5431523.8%75 W · 240 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes6c203.11$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.432999.4%28 W · 271 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick5cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e8e…780dbacked Yes56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a71…49bcbacked Yes67c200$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.74475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+36.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0670…2bf0backed Yes56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.18per pick40cpaid-71%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9764…1379backed Yes49c200$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6371…b62fbacked Yes56c200$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x02ab…cda4backed Yes43c199.99$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x398e…3752backed Yes17c176.47$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303164.5%20 W · 11 L+4.1wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+16.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c19…cc52backed Yes59c160$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.464355.8%24 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72da…e2b1backed Yes25c151.59$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.4550%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes11c149.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.821499.4%14 W · 135 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick8cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4a4…8f65backed Yes14c146.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201127.3%3 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+46.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c2c…3dc9backed Yes20c145.85$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.17560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1262…84b7backed No57c142.1$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82af…f919backed Yes73c137.4$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbbe…b616backed No66c128.79$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.792951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd028…e105backed No80c124.64$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.93250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b13…9781backed Yes33c121.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick53cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c9c…fbb7backed No60c120$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+94.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdb42…0b87backed No56c120$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.25per pick60cpaid+47.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9755…872bbacked No79c116.96$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a77…019ebacked Yes36c112.48$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402740.7%11 W · 16 L+7.7wins+0.29per pick12cpaid+234%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x7b07…41d0backed Yes35c109.52$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-35.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b89…baa4backed Yes36c106.45$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.34520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-54.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe50a…2da4backed Yes25c103.79$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+406.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2575…e7e6backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153834.2%13 W · 25 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick29cpaid+23.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a2c…32a2backed Yes58c100$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa083…ad37backed Yes73c100$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+278.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dc7…116fbacked No35c100$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0a89…c71bbacked Yes21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212166.7%14 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+9.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab3b…f0f2backed No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+135.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7253…505abacked Yes16c99.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-20.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5553…4fa9backed Yes23c86.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-63.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x098c…d077backed No59c84$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70d7…2511backed Yes63c79.37$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes29c73.04$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-13.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb25…de36backed Yes31c71.61$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.531947.4%9 W · 10 L+2.9wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+97.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf46f…f616backed No70c68.52$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cc7…4572backed Yes19c60$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.440%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa84c…e1f7backed Yes26c53.52$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xddd8…31a4backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick64cpaid+13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1248…8db1backed Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd3b…9f3abacked Yes26c48.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.740%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2825…7749backed Yes47c44.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed No69c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bf5…b3f1backed Yes51c39.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7085…5b58backed Yes52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-55.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No39c37.04$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.5964812%78 W · 570 L-61.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-53.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xae8a…9f2abacked Yes41c35.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9d6…3ae3backed Yes72c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.24per pick46cpaid-61%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.