Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc82aa080719b3578eab3bcd8d6d249500195910362019d664a57b11ce578c95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $106,997
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 2c | 22,710$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.12 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 0c | 12,453$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc3…edf0backed Yes | 3c | 5,855$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.49 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 15cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a6…409cbacked Yes | 2c | 4,500$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6305…9d0bbacked Yes | 6c | 3,347$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 2,300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,576$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 3c | 1,525$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 2c | 1,472$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 1c | 1,426$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +8.5wins | +0.15per pick | 3cpaid | +321.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 1,208$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.67 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…c7aebacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b89…baa4backed Yes | 2c | 912.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 703.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0670…2bf0backed Yes | 6c | 657.68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -71%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 2c | 636.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +10.4wins | +0.17per pick | 4cpaid | +300.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 3c | 481.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a4…8f65backed Yes | 2c | 444.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes | 2c | 435.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 3c | 357.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d6…3ae3backed Yes | 7c | 267.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -61%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae8a…9f2abacked Yes | 6c | 265.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70d7…2511backed Yes | 10c | 131.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in January?this page
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in January?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in January?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in January?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 in January?No won
- Will Hyperliquid hit $26 in January?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid hit $30 in January?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid hit $34 in January?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid hit $38 in January?No won
- Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January?No won
- Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.