Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab324836336d59c95c95fd2ed623646322d33914270bd30aa53c8243022503b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $286,098
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $334,196
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $286,098 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 58,253$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.4 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…ec33backed Yes | 1c | 9,999$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,556$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7080…3d94backed Yes | 1c | 3,721$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ac…86e4backed Yes | 4c | 3,614$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.85 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bc…ba8fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,484$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 11cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 1c | 3,365$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.54 | 39 | 10.3%4 W · 35 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…eca0backed Yes | 1c | 3,350$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12fd…296ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,347$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x791d…d914backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,933$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0756…45d8backed Yes | 2c | 2,920$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf17f…b558backed Yes | 1c | 2,686$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x385b…40e5backed Yes | 8c | 2,625$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 9cpaid | +270.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd07a…d848backed Yes | 2c | 2,500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 1c | 2,288$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 2,170$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 1c | 2,091$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +8.5wins | +0.15per pick | 3cpaid | +321.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x305a…fcd5backed Yes | 2c | 2,003$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d75…c6f1backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 1c | 1,900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe929…299fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,614$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e10…beeebacked Yes | 1c | 1,525$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Yes | 2c | 1,399$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,290$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.19 | 299 | 9.4%28 W · 271 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 1c | 1,162$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e3…58edbacked Yes | 1c | 1,061$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +535.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd669…f5e7backed Yes | 2c | 1,023$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | +10.4wins | +0.17per pick | 4cpaid | +300.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x059c…a970backed Yes | 10c | 1,014$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -58%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b34…c545backed Yes | 10c | 907.16$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a22…ee5bbacked Yes | 12c | 790.98$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.19 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…6144backed Yes | 2c | 762.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 2c | 757.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 212 | 5.7%12 W · 200 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c6…5f62backed Yes | 2c | 709.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…f0bebacked Yes | 4c | 541.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8af…9f61backed Yes | 7c | 538.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe98d…8fe0backed Yes | 6c | 514.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace5…4457backed Yes | 8c | 499.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6247…dddabacked Yes | 11c | 318.65$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…f691backed Yes | 8c | 313.42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…463ebacked Yes | 4c | 295.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +137.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 4c | 291.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 146 | 3.4%5 W · 141 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a1…0b8bbacked Yes | 11c | 284.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb8…f154backed Yes | 10c | 200.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1b…8ac9backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 159.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 648 | 12%78 W · 570 L | -61.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc87d…c339backed Yes | 11c | 144.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd6…0e55backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hyperliquid hit $42 in January?this page
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 in January?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in January?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in January?No won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in January?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $8 in January?No won
- Will Hyperliquid hit $26 in January?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid hit $30 in January?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid hit $34 in January?Yes won
- Will Hyperliquid hit $38 in January?No won
- Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.