TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$141,669
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$145,877

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,669 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xedc0…99f3backed No24c11,889$2,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,054.4911836.4%43 W · 75 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b2c…3cfbbacked Yes0c7,951$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No7c6,057$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,628.526434.4%22 W · 42 L+5.3wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+100.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed No15c3,811$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,243.563215.6%5 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-12%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ae7…0fd1backed No7c2,790$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,594.041520%3 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick27cpaid+12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb177…ac08backed No10c2,287$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,067.3944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.29per pick16cpaid+248.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x155b…7aafbacked Yes1c2,150$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-79.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed No2c2,000$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9543842.1%16 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+114.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c59…1766backed No4c2,000$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920.466453.1%34 W · 30 L+12.9wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+95.4%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xb36c…8715backed No5c2,000$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,909.97911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+146.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…3ee3backed No77c1,955$1,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.241353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+8.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x22f0…ae31backed No9c1,680$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,521.551520%3 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1083…70f6backed Yes7c1,649$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.96333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-41.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No3c1,500$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,450.53844.7%17 W · 21 L+4.5wins+0.12per pick33cpaid+105.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed Yes43c1,392$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.951776.5%13 W · 4 L+6.1wins+0.36per pick41cpaid+90.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No2c1,250$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,22526312.9%34 W · 229 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8a0…5cc4backed No58c1,136$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.83850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes21c1,101$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.442254.5%12 W · 10 L+8.3wins+0.38per pick17cpaid+297.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed No14c1,066$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$917.046150.8%31 W · 30 L+16.6wins+0.27per pick24cpaid+158.1%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No8c999.5$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$918.333813.2%5 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No5c949.98$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.4810723.4%25 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1984…713cbacked No3c913.41$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.762100%2 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.96per pick4cpaid+2,509.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2d8c…26e9backed No75c872.54$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.673100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ea…1ad5backed Yes71c833.29$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590560%3 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick75cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No5c776.83$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.6811636.2%42 W · 74 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No19c750.27$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.234325.6%11 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0aae…251cbacked No4c664.77$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.111330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+181.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebe2…e4d2backed Yes54c641.35$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.52333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-53.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe828…5ceabacked No3c628.09$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$610.81936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+133.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No5c592.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.041,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No43c509.06$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.269157.1%52 W · 39 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+9.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes20c500$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.58150.6%41 W · 40 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed No4c500$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481.86841.2%28 W · 40 L+8.4wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+54.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6513…8c10backed No7c499.97$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.9810034%34 W · 66 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+23%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c23…599fbacked No78c493.9$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.092100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+78.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No27c484.87$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.339850%49 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No7c476.4$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.3712.8%2 W · 69 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-66.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No15c446.95$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.9325122.7%57 W · 194 L-9.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked No4c439.24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.626136.1%22 W · 39 L+0.3wins0.00per pick36cpaid+17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x442d…523ebacked No3c409.41$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.09147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick11cpaid+119.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9880…82d6backed No27c403.6$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.61526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-38.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x486f…2380backed Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d88…b0c4backed No4c399.96$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.973132.3%10 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+34.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92da…1b28backed No4c349.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.29425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+495.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20e3…e56dbacked No73c318.94$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.582100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e0c…6b3cbacked No11c305.6$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.061163.6%7 W · 4 L+2.4wins+0.22per pick42cpaid+87%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x17a5…e00abacked No6c255.1$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.652828.6%8 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Yes28c254.28$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.998837.5%33 W · 55 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No7c250.21$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.4757426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a08…7852backed No9c242.22$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.22540%2 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick11cpaid+390.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbc97…fd78backed Yes9c230.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f07…fbdebacked No60c229.03$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.58333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-44.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed No10c210.82$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.472917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb06c…6961backed Yes48c206.78$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-10.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked No16c200$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1686354%34 W · 29 L+11.0wins+0.17per pick37cpaid+59.6%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x7f92…57bcbacked Yes57c194.31$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f01…548cbacked No10c178.09$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.573023.3%7 W · 23 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick27cpaid+59.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4e4…af43backed Yes77c169.43$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ec2…f8fabacked No14c162.38$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.78475%3 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick33cpaid+191.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No12c155.99$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.793627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-39.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8e4…2daebacked No27c144.58$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.211060%6 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+39.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x71c9…5ab2backed Yes17c143.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked No9c134.78$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.659333.3%31 W · 62 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+10.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb11e…84c5backed No62c126.93$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.46633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No19c111.07$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.6289317.1%153 W · 740 L-144.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-61.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xae8a…9f2abacked No13c110.97$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.191533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+91.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a60…89b6backed Yes62c106.37$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-12.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b74…b58fbacked Yes74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.72333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick78cpaid-58.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ebe…e5ddbacked Yes49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.92759.3%16 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7f1…e7e0backed No20c99.6$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+121.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0972…4ae7backed Yes55c98.91$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.53250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf70…7350backed No70c97.83$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.22250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8aaf…c132backed No62c92.92$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.04450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed No13c89.87$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.193740.5%15 W · 22 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+19.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1839…3ad3backed No65c87.96$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x40ac…2042backed No65c77.16$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.16540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-38.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x026b…f975backed Yes29c69.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdafa…9f46backed Yes48c65.24$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.39850%4 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed Yes23c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143148.4%15 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5123…34fabacked No54c53.63$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c4d…9e05backed Yes49c51.77$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x244b…595bbacked Yes49c51.56$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.27250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31f4…1a25backed No54c50.75$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd36…0f01backed Yes61c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-40.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x983d…933fbacked No63c47.37$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.37911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-82.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f18…6ae5backed No53c46.23$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85c7…a08ebacked Yes49c40.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xedc1…56b0backed Yes42c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.64742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f51…5f02backed No78c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7adc…1e12backed No54c39.46$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+84.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20c5…a61fbacked Yes51c35.44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9eee…ebe0backed Yes58c34.56$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53eb…7d54backed Yes74c34$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.161040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57bb…2d0bbacked No77c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bb4…1cd5backed Yes57c25.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x57eb…a2afbacked Yes71c24.05$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1720%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x03e6…fd76backed No63c23.61$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+57.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e18…f10bbacked No77c22.82$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.32450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6119834.8%69 W · 129 L-23.7wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x9786…b15cbacked No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.922100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+138.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.