AI · resolved market
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1e6d7cc9f146dc6ad5931163535a04fe225c53a60ff3e353856b998bb9203c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $141,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $145,877
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $141,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed No | 24c | 11,889$2,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,054.49 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b2c…3cfbbacked Yes | 0c | 7,951$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 7c | 6,057$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,628.52 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8be…c8d1backed No | 15c | 3,811$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,243.56 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae7…0fd1backed No | 7c | 2,790$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,594.04 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…ac08backed No | 10c | 2,287$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,067.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.29per pick | 16cpaid | +248.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…7aafbacked Yes | 1c | 2,150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed No | 2c | 2,000$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,954 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +114.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920.46 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +12.9wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb36c…8715backed No | 5c | 2,000$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,909.97 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | +146.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…3ee3backed No | 77c | 1,955$1,507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22f0…ae31backed No | 9c | 1,680$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.55 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1083…70f6backed Yes | 7c | 1,649$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 3c | 1,500$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450.5 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed Yes | 43c | 1,392$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.95 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.36per pick | 41cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 1,250$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 58c | 1,136$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.83 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked Yes | 21c | 1,101$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.44 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +8.3wins | +0.38per pick | 17cpaid | +297.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 14c | 1,066$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.04 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | +16.6wins | +0.27per pick | 24cpaid | +158.1%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 8c | 999.5$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.33 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 5c | 949.98$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.48 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1984…713cbacked No | 3c | 913.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.76 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,509.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8c…26e9backed No | 75c | 872.54$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ea…1ad5backed Yes | 71c | 833.29$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 5c | 776.83$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.68 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 19c | 750.27$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.23 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…251cbacked No | 4c | 664.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.11 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +181.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed Yes | 54c | 641.35$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…5ceabacked No | 3c | 628.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610.8 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 592.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$562.04 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked No | 43c | 509.06$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.26 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes | 20c | 500$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed No | 4c | 500$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.8 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +8.4wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6513…8c10backed No | 7c | 499.97$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.98 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c23…599fbacked No | 78c | 493.9$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.09 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 27c | 484.87$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.33 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked No | 7c | 476.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.3 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 15c | 446.95$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.93 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 4c | 439.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.62 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x442d…523ebacked No | 3c | 409.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.09 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9880…82d6backed No | 27c | 403.6$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.6 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x486f…2380backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d88…b0c4backed No | 4c | 399.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.97 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92da…1b28backed No | 4c | 349.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +495.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e3…e56dbacked No | 73c | 318.94$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked No | 11c | 305.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.06 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +87%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked No | 6c | 255.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.65 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Yes | 28c | 254.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 7c | 250.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.47 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a08…7852backed No | 9c | 242.22$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 11cpaid | +390.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc97…fd78backed Yes | 9c | 230.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f07…fbdebacked No | 60c | 229.03$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed No | 10c | 210.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.47 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Yes | 48c | 206.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7f92…57bcbacked Yes | 57c | 194.31$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f01…548cbacked No | 10c | 178.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.57 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e4…af43backed Yes | 77c | 169.43$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec2…f8fabacked No | 14c | 162.38$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.78 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +191.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 12c | 155.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.79 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked No | 27c | 144.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.21 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x71c9…5ab2backed Yes | 17c | 143.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 9c | 134.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.65 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb11e…84c5backed No | 62c | 126.93$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 19c | 111.07$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.62 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xae8a…9f2abacked No | 13c | 110.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.19 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +91.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a60…89b6backed Yes | 62c | 106.37$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.72 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 78cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebe…e5ddbacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f1…e7e0backed No | 20c | 99.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +121.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…4ae7backed Yes | 55c | 98.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…7350backed No | 70c | 97.83$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aaf…c132backed No | 62c | 92.92$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed No | 13c | 89.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.19 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1839…3ad3backed No | 65c | 87.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…2042backed No | 65c | 77.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x026b…f975backed Yes | 29c | 69.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdafa…9f46backed Yes | 48c | 65.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5123…34fabacked No | 54c | 53.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4d…9e05backed Yes | 49c | 51.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x244b…595bbacked Yes | 49c | 51.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31f4…1a25backed No | 54c | 50.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…0f01backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked No | 63c | 47.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f18…6ae5backed No | 53c | 46.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c7…a08ebacked Yes | 49c | 40.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…56b0backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f51…5f02backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7adc…1e12backed No | 54c | 39.46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20c5…a61fbacked Yes | 51c | 35.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eee…ebe0backed Yes | 58c | 34.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53eb…7d54backed Yes | 74c | 34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57bb…2d0bbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bb4…1cd5backed Yes | 57c | 25.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57eb…a2afbacked Yes | 71c | 24.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03e6…fd76backed No | 63c | 23.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e18…f10bbacked No | 77c | 22.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 198 | 34.8%69 W · 129 L | -23.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9786…b15cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?this page
- Will CapCut - Video Editor be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?No won
- Will GoWish - Your Digital Wishlist be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?No won
- Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?No won
- Will Shop: All your favorite brands be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?No won
- Will Sora be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?No won
- Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.