TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Earnings · resolved market

Will Morgan Stanley (MS) beat quarterly earnings?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$40,360
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,191

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,360 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Earnings
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ac2…4c15backed No0c9,420$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f0f…4f31backed No17c4,799$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.5335635.1%125 W · 231 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+20.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes71c2,150$1,522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$627.9976137.6%286 W · 475 L+35.5wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1693…974ebacked Yes78c1,816$1,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.432080%16 W · 4 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick68cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e88…301cbacked Yes79c1,560$1,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.9947138.6%182 W · 289 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5882…387abacked Yes79c1,390$1,094 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.87580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+34.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb12d…d607backed No18c1,344$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.8640%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe379…3c98backed Yes80c1,166$928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…dc80backed No18c1,062$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.921136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick23cpaid+29.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes79c704.74$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.7215564.5%100 W · 55 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd555…e28abacked Yes74c703$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.7521639.4%85 W · 131 L+8.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+31.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4497…8c81backed No8c519.52$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.88557.3%4 W · 51 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick13cpaid+0.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3164…ad18backed No10c499.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.28per pick17cpaid+309.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x13e9…7cd4backed No28c492.61$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402030%6 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick19cpaid+69.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ed5…83efbacked No24c487.19$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.372222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x375e…e862backed No26c473.53$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.592352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6e24…70a6backed No8c372.02$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.761827.8%5 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+170%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No9c362.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.320729.5%61 W · 146 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79c1…497dbacked No26c351.17$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.531926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8310…d990backed No22c287.03$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5840%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ee1…640fbacked No18c279.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No22c252.87$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.7846314.3%66 W · 397 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c4c…b7b8backed Yes54c241.17$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.612100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes76c207.5$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.817137.4%64 W · 107 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+31.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf629…bda0backed No26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-52%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45db…8f65backed No50c192.42$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.071936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe40…30f2backed No16c188.3$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa802…23dfbacked No19c184.83$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0310821.3%23 W · 85 L-0.1wins0.00per pick21cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77dd…fc49backed No10c170$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.31per pick14cpaid+265%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No31c161.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.120742%87 W · 120 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3489…7fffbacked No20c159.55$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x961b…4210backed No40c150.13$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b22…107fbacked No20c146.72$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes66c146.43$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.261573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+44%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x418d…baf6backed Yes72c138.64$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.64540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x417b…18d3backed Yes66c138.4$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.57580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+43.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3161…623dbacked Yes71c135$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.55060%30 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4670…5f1cbacked Yes77c129.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.494459.1%26 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0308…4044backed No22c127.59$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No34c124.59$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes60c118.13$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.2531229.8%93 W · 219 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51f8…cb7bbacked No17c117.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed No26c115.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.741216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick24cpaid+2.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe056…8120backed No33c114.11$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.662462.5%15 W · 9 L+2.4wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+54.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfce…80c7backed Yes51c113.89$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.834437.2%128 W · 216 L+22.2wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+12.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4be5…c1b3backed No59c110$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.91855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa42a…cb8ebacked No12c104$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf914…3b2bbacked Yes77c103.9$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb963…b478backed Yes71c100$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e5f…95e2backed No13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-46.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6e5…2244backed No25c99.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25608.3%5 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-31.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56d1…83eabacked Yes72c99.99$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed No11c97.02$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.131361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick47cpaid+22.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec0c…8589backed Yes77c97$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.314040%16 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+46.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cbc…76f6backed No52c96.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e9c…3262backed Yes75c82.29$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.57450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff01…3bfebacked Yes64c79.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x464a…4aa5backed Yes67c74.84$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.841233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+167.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes66c74.59$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3611032.7%36 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xab0f…709ebacked No19c74.57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.17425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-67.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cb0…6167backed No28c71.43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7573…3f9cbacked No40c70$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fb1…290abacked No29c65.2$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-50.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac1c…002dbacked No17c64.49$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+43.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe79a…d65cbacked No35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-42.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f58…a6ecbacked No27c55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f21…3d6ebacked No39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e8e…00abbacked No39c51.28$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9bd…22f6backed Yes80c50$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed Yes71c49.99$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.54266.7%28 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x575f…7febbacked No24c48.01$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.533928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23ca…9ae6backed Yes77c45$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.359766%64 W · 33 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd73b…bf60backed No47c42.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick26cpaid+109.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed No28c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8267…6dd5backed Yes75c38.11$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick72cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xece2…f453backed Yes76c37$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick76cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked No46c32.87$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92a1…9836backed Yes78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf116…246abacked Yes60c27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid-16.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c5…3533backed Yes77c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.751580%12 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick77cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb71…d3cebacked Yes66c24.24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.24250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x710d…02aabacked Yes78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick74cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc877…05b4backed Yes74c16.51$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa25c…3badbacked Yes80c16.25$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe891…b782backed Yes70c15$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78da…f6c4backed Yes80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91bd…7ebabacked Yes80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a9d…4655backed Yes80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.