Earnings · resolved market
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfd6497fca9e900c03e88734d2f91ec11ffe1952928f7c4338582f64ec0c116e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,360
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,360 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ac2…4c15backed No | 0c | 9,420$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0f…4f31backed No | 17c | 4,799$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.53 | 356 | 35.1%125 W · 231 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 71c | 2,150$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.99 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1693…974ebacked Yes | 78c | 1,816$1,422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.43 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 79c | 1,560$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.99 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5882…387abacked Yes | 79c | 1,390$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.87 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…d607backed No | 18c | 1,344$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe379…3c98backed Yes | 80c | 1,166$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…dc80backed No | 18c | 1,062$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.92 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 23cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 79c | 704.74$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.72 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 74c | 703$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.75 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…8c81backed No | 8c | 519.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 55 | 7.3%4 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…ad18backed No | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 17cpaid | +309.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x13e9…7cd4backed No | 28c | 492.61$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed5…83efbacked No | 24c | 487.19$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.37 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…e862backed No | 26c | 473.53$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.59 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…70a6backed No | 8c | 372.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +170%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 9c | 362.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 207 | 29.5%61 W · 146 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c1…497dbacked No | 26c | 351.17$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.53 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8310…d990backed No | 22c | 287.03$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee1…640fbacked No | 18c | 279.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 22c | 252.87$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4c…b7b8backed Yes | 54c | 241.17$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes | 76c | 207.5$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…8f65backed No | 50c | 192.42$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.07 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe40…30f2backed No | 16c | 188.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 19c | 184.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77dd…fc49backed No | 10c | 170$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.31per pick | 14cpaid | +265%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 31c | 161.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3489…7fffbacked No | 20c | 159.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961b…4210backed No | 40c | 150.13$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…107fbacked No | 20c | 146.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…1a3ebacked Yes | 66c | 146.43$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +44%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x418d…baf6backed Yes | 72c | 138.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed Yes | 66c | 138.4$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3161…623dbacked Yes | 71c | 135$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4670…5f1cbacked Yes | 77c | 129.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0308…4044backed No | 22c | 127.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed No | 34c | 124.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 60c | 118.13$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.25 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f8…cb7bbacked No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 26c | 115.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe056…8120backed No | 33c | 114.11$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.66 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 51c | 113.89$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 344 | 37.2%128 W · 216 L | +22.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4be5…c1b3backed No | 59c | 110$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.9 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa42a…cb8ebacked No | 12c | 104$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf914…3b2bbacked Yes | 77c | 103.9$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb963…b478backed Yes | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…95e2backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e5…2244backed No | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d1…83eabacked Yes | 72c | 99.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 11c | 97.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 77c | 97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbc…76f6backed No | 52c | 96.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…3262backed Yes | 75c | 82.29$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff01…3bfebacked Yes | 64c | 79.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x464a…4aa5backed Yes | 67c | 74.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.84 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +167.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 66c | 74.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab0f…709ebacked No | 19c | 74.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb0…6167backed No | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7573…3f9cbacked No | 40c | 70$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb1…290abacked No | 29c | 65.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1c…002dbacked No | 17c | 64.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe79a…d65cbacked No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f58…a6ecbacked No | 27c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e8e…00abbacked No | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9bd…22f6backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 71c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x575f…7febbacked No | 24c | 48.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…9ae6backed Yes | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 97 | 66%64 W · 33 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd73b…bf60backed No | 47c | 42.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +109.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3925…c094backed No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…6dd5backed Yes | 75c | 38.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xece2…f453backed Yes | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked No | 46c | 32.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92a1…9836backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf116…246abacked Yes | 60c | 27$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c5…3533backed Yes | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb71…d3cebacked Yes | 66c | 24.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 74cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 74c | 16.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa25c…3badbacked Yes | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe891…b782backed Yes | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78da…f6c4backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91bd…7ebabacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9d…4655backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.