Serie A · resolved market
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13b62587b14c1c63a6dc344fdd162024a41bafa57c9703a23b5fc8687fd97b1c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 25c | 2,135$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f7…8c35backed No | 1c | 1,180$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdb…4a63backed No | 29c | 810.27$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes | 72c | 715.38$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.4 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +85%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 23c | 600$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 77c | 600$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…bd3bbacked No | 3c | 582.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1873…37b6backed Yes | 56c | 570.53$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b82…f2ecbacked No | 11c | 534.18$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed No | 12c | 501.47$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 15c | 462.43$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +93%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 10c | 328.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 9c | 300.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919f…2c47backed No | 10c | 270$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeeb…8e29backed Yes | 80c | 250.53$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c67…56d3backed Yes | 76c | 238.06$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…b817backed No | 49c | 223.5$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 20c | 215$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a49…45f8backed No | 15c | 200.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…2183backed No | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 14c | 197.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed No | 19c | 181$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked Yes | 50c | 175.06$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ca…f5d9backed No | 13c | 151.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 77c | 123.71$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.95 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x819f…f200backed No | 50c | 115.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 15c | 110.08$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +183.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 49c | 105.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 30c | 85.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4c…73eabacked No | 27c | 73.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 17c | 64.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 65 | 35.4%23 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed No | 23c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 44cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6368…d45ebacked Yes | 53c | 49.97$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…4ababacked Yes | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 63c | 40.54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +5.3wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +169.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ea…3b34backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b64…c94cbacked Yes | 60c | 32.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db0…8c18backed Yes | 57c | 31.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5f…205cbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17c0…5195backed Yes | 72c | 24.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec5…4deabacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f88…0111backed Yes | 79c | 19.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9678…ef8dbacked Yes | 79c | 19.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season?this page
- Will Ademola Lookman be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season?No won
- Will Marcus Thuram be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season?No won
- Will Santiago Gimenez be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Serie A season?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.