MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9158339079d3d0ecbe0c93ed9f0423e652a34484986ae49e664fec224777261f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 3,775$1,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,730.12 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Under | 54c | 3,500$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,610 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 58c | 1,895$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.63 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 59c | 1,223$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.13 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 53c | 980.68$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.92 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 61c | 816.31$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.64 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 33c | 647.25$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.89 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 47c | 459.66$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.04 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 53c | 430.47$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.63 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 332.48$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.27 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Under | 55c | 273.6$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.6 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 239.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 39c | 226.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.52 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Under | 58c | 225.81$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.84 | 172 | 52.9%91 W · 81 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 34c | 190.4$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.95 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1548…fe8ebacked Under | 79c | 182.48$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 63c | 153.94$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.96 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 53c | 129.77$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 47c | 95.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 54c | 82.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.95 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 39c | 82.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 49c | 78.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 46c | 77.5$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 58c | 66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 53c | 65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.55 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Under | 62c | 62.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed Under | 58c | 56.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Over | 21c | 49.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 47c | 41.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 50c | 40.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 48c | 30.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Under | 69c | 28.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 64c | 27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5c…fb95backed Over | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5this page
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue JaysLos Angeles Angels won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5Over won
- Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.