Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82a728a14abde87380464910ef65dcbbe4c18d76f6b8c4c3644cb363f7e8ad47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,840
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,840 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x597e…cd70backed No | 1c | 24,109$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e57…55b7backed No | 0c | 8,440$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 0c | 6,672$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 10c | 1,283$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.07 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…305dbacked No | 2c | 847.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed No | 58c | 749.99$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.99 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 42c | 589.36$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.76 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…f9c0backed No | 8c | 567.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.83 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5b1…bb91backed No | 60c | 504.16$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fb…0255backed No | 60c | 400.55$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01aa…187bbacked Yes | 44c | 309.8$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2f…d9debacked No | 16c | 305.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…78bebacked No | 64c | 300$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed Yes | 12c | 291.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.49 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Yes | 40c | 250.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.56 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…4b31backed Yes | 40c | 201.01$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed No | 37c | 124.66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 60c | 122.63$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.68 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 119.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…d82ebacked Yes | 26c | 116.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.56 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +73%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2c…ad23backed Yes | 40c | 100.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd7…c4e3backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 73cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked Yes | 39c | 96.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed No | 32c | 86.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf737…37aabacked Yes | 43c | 86.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 84.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.2 | 1,032 | 9.3%96 W · 936 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 66c | 77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 160 | 50.6%81 W · 79 L | +13.7wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 57c | 75.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1029…9b36backed Yes | 20c | 61.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.56 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11ec…1b5ebacked Yes | 70c | 56.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4043…05e9backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Yes | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4943…4d72backed No | 61c | 49.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9395…b9cabacked Yes | 25c | 48.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 28c | 45.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59e…4af8backed No | 68c | 44.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 24c | 43.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…ddc8backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37dc…85ccbacked No | 78c | 39.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed Yes | 26c | 39.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.49 | 92 | 35.9%33 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa56…5519backed Yes | 51c | 37.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 79c | 37.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked Yes | 54c | 37.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 28c | 36.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…e26bbacked No | 70c | 35.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…5a81backed No | 40c | 30.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e35…ee1abacked Yes | 41c | 29.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +91.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be1…ace5backed Yes | 53c | 26.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +187.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x448e…584ebacked Yes | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 74c | 21.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb3b…fb85backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 56c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdda3…4a47backed No | 55c | 19.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of March 2026?this page
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,000 on the final trading day of March 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,400 on the final trading day of March 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,000 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,200 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,400 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,600 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,500 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.