Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of March 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc72388b51436262d44b66ad0c238017b4e4dbc4f078d55e97d08531f4ee6dd89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,616
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,616 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,257$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33da…2c3ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,111$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.49 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +3.9wins | +0.20per pick | 6cpaid | +567.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 9c | 801$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.09 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb06…662fbacked Yes | 4c | 705.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 606.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…572bbacked Yes | 15c | 564.21$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4043…05e9backed Yes | 7c | 470.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 9c | 440$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 165 | 16.4%27 W · 138 L | +12.2wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 4c | 403.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 6c | 401.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 241 | 26.1%63 W · 178 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…d82ebacked Yes | 10c | 389.13$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +73%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x455f…cd81backed Yes | 3c | 295.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 12c | 281.77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf737…37aabacked Yes | 17c | 270.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 10c | 209.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecff…4b31backed Yes | 8c | 196.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3c…833ebacked Yes | 24c | 195.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked No | 64c | 156.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.74 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e0…1a3bbacked Yes | 28c | 141.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf29…bd92backed Yes | 16c | 124.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed No | 45c | 120$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.6 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb29…fb86backed Yes | 17c | 106.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4950…9a61backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd7…c4e3backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 73cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81fd…1cd0backed Yes | 36c | 65.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed No | 68c | 64$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fcd…c60dbacked No | 70c | 36.89$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7132…a53ebacked No | 77c | 18.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 11 | 100%11 W · 0 L | +5.2wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…be19backed No | 56c | 18.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.01 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +7.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +161.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,800 on the final trading day of March 2026?this page
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,000 on the final trading day of March 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,400 on the final trading day of March 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of March 2026?Yes won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,000 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,200 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,400 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,600 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,000 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
- Will Gold (GC) settle over $6,500 on the final trading day of March 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.