TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Katie Wilson win the 2025 Seattle mayoral election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$446,583
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$485,366

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $446,583 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 265 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc2a3…c3a6backed No19c21,528$4,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,129.531421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-15.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No30c16,967$5,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,104.083548.6%17 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes79c13,584$10,677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,906.93145.2%14 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Yes72c11,713$8,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,273.46650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-34.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes66c10,852$7,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,641.952725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-42.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes60c9,041$5,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,602.082825%7 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-52%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdacf…8d11backed No11c7,471$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.891741.2%7 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+74.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No39c7,092$2,742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,742.31850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6d7…9db4backed Yes74c5,000$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.99683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes61c4,561$2,786 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,774.8921033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4818…fde0backed Yes70c4,559$3,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,370.87366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb07a…4d19backed Yes68c4,425$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,425.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes54c4,183$2,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,937.1424433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes65c4,060$2,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,424.8414356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No16c3,586$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.858331.3%26 W · 57 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes79c3,552$2,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.41947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3a6…fd55backed Yes35c3,495$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,262.445841.4%24 W · 34 L+6.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes58c3,470$2,028 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,442.157749.4%38 W · 39 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+34.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked No6c3,091$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.6840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x155f…660ebacked Yes67c3,000$2,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9801100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb412…3026backed Yes73c2,893$2,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.9683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick62cpaid+14.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes57c2,874$1,632 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,241.785433.3%18 W · 36 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-10.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbae5…45e3backed Yes59c2,728$1,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,119.282450%12 W · 12 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+9.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc358…1015backed Yes73c2,724$1,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.361216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-73.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No4c2,686$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.45611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick5cpaid-71%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No41c2,453$1,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,011.75151%26 W · 25 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes71c2,371$1,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.1711522.6%26 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No29c2,201$644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$644.4112440.3%50 W · 74 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-17.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes45c2,011$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,097.876841.2%28 W · 40 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No37c1,965$735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.121926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Yes75c1,946$1,451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.755642.9%24 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid+25.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5157…aa2cbacked Yes79c1,914$1,516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.77366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No31c1,843$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.4334129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa733…0e46backed Yes43c1,809$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,033.671225%3 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-50.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e32…535bbacked Yes45c1,789$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.744330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes26c1,464$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.041353.8%7 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick31cpaid+50.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1e26…e972backed Yes72c1,389$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.89250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…3ee3backed Yes60c1,356$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes38c1,333$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.565044%22 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a45…9d4abacked No34c1,300$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444.53944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+50.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14a1…1149backed Yes78c1,263$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.81330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ad…f700backed Yes73c1,096$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.81650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe570…084ebacked Yes72c1,056$761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.41450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked No40c1,025$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4101833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No10c1,005$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8549511.5%57 W · 438 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69ff…0d1dbacked Yes68c1,000$680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$320650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c91…1971backed Yes71c1,000$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x592c…b308backed No7c972.23$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked No24c944.12$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3106…d672backed Yes71c916.21$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.152842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-32.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7979…202fbacked Yes76c915.06$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.763100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes75c836.1$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.563630.6%11 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No32c825.43$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.988114.8%12 W · 69 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-39.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes48c810.86$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.484957.1%28 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+32.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed Yes78c800$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.331258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-22.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked Yes36c799.99$290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.99850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fd4…325cbacked Yes79c786.21$619 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.94650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-37%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f9…2573backed Yes71c762.59$543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.332147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick37cpaid-9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x07ab…e4d0backed No3c755.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa310…4c56backed Yes62c752.89$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.51666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+115.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5c32…377fbacked Yes57c749.99$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0e…79c8backed Yes37c730$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.511540%6 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-23.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa4b4…efc6backed Yes74c719.99$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.67650%3 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-30.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes77c700$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16231534%107 W · 208 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-33.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes24c690.51$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.795145.1%23 W · 28 L+6.8wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+103%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa34d…67fdbacked Yes54c666$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.044100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+75.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked Yes35c616.79$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.921650%8 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+49%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No41c587.9$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.484652.2%24 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99f2…57b2backed Yes70c576.96$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.544100%4 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe732…898fbacked Yes47c573.16$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.793135.5%11 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No2c570.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.11250%6 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83c5…0299backed No30c556.38$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.38650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad28…1601backed Yes79c555$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.553345.5%15 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7513…110dbacked No33c553$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x053f…5f6dbacked Yes75c545$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.25425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-66.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2482…c164backed No27c530$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ece…3893backed Yes58c517.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.242100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+100.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes63c512$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.1519631.1%61 W · 135 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98e3…c80fbacked No34c505.02$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17080%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa47b…a496backed Yes80c500.75$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.752100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+297.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked Yes71c500$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1451100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes45c499.73$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.731838.9%7 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes45c493.59$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.0715445.5%70 W · 84 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c6e…5884backed Yes46c490.94$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No5c487.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.03585.2%3 W · 55 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No27c484.15$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.548718.4%16 W · 71 L-8.5wins-0.10per pick28cpaid-38.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x825e…904fbacked No42c482$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.12742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes73c465.74$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.574744.7%21 W · 26 L+6.9wins+0.15per pick30cpaid+12.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5927…672bbacked Yes59c464.26$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.291060%6 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+103.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7188…e9c0backed No5c463.58$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7d6…3c6ebacked Yes40c463.49$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.39250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+26.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc3c…e38bbacked Yes59c440.06$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.065100%5 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+53.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1d90…a17ebacked Yes45c429.69$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+121.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4eab…08bfbacked No7c422.92$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cf8…7e78backed No30c414.99$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.950%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf66c…4ab1backed No6c406.83$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.86137.7%1 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick8cpaid-79.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes77c403.81$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.8816833.3%56 W · 112 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2aa2…36f6backed No5c402.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x660f…ec30backed No34c400.76$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.57714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-48.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked No18c400$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7250%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.