MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x590bcab2b2094da82d92dc3444e83b5c588c40e91438bbda391565607941559d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,915
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae30…079ebacked Under | 62c | 3,226$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 80 | 53.8%43 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Over | 38c | 1,497$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.26 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 38c | 1,008$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.9 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x762e…4bf0backed Under | 57c | 977.21$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.01 | 245 | 51.8%127 W · 118 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 43c | 972.25$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553.58 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 38c | 733.17$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.56 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 62c | 325.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd63e…0d52backed Under | 62c | 284.08$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 91 | 61.5%56 W · 35 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 38c | 249.91$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.3 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 38c | 222$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.64 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 38c | 165.51$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.61 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 60c | 116.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 60c | 111.8$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 37c | 90.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.15 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 40c | 79.48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 43c | 70$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.1 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Over | 43c | 69.76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.76 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 39c | 51.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 58c | 48.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.28 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 57c | 48$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 42c | 35.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 35c | 32.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 35c | 31.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 69c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 41c | 25.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Under | 73c | 24.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Under | 64c | 20.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco GiantsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.