MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b37bf0ff306470332742bc584f426139264601c13225c26355c6abb3a358a28
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, San Francisco Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,944
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,944 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Francisco Giants | 72c | 17,982$13,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,029.02 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 27c | 10,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,300 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 27c | 4,235$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,091.25 | 1,875 | 52.1%976 W · 899 L | +52.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 30c | 2,420$718 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,701.63 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 868.94$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.43 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 76c | 787.83$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.83 | 253 | 66.4%168 W · 85 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 509.49$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.39 | 6,128 | 55.4%3,394 W · 2,734 L | +347.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 459.25$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.73 | 659 | 49.2%324 W · 335 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 395.98$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.91 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 171.05$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.05 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed San Francisco Giants | 68c | 157.42$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.63 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 51c | 137.71$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.48 | 1,376 | 54.3%747 W · 629 L | +17.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 30c | 120$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed2…0ddabacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 577 | 47.7%275 W · 302 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 92.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 52c | 71.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked San Francisco Giants | 22c | 71.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 1,734 | 50.4%874 W · 860 L | +57.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 67.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.79 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked San Francisco Giants | 44c | 64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 2,549 | 45.8%1,168 W · 1,381 L | -75.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…d4e9backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked San Francisco Giants | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed San Francisco Giants | 53c | 49.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 1,742 | 49.1%856 W · 886 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…7d86backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 47.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a52…baafbacked San Francisco Giants | 50c | 44.32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed San Francisco Giants | 71c | 39.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed San Francisco Giants | 26c | 38.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed San Francisco Giants | 52c | 37.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed San Francisco Giants | 54c | 31.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 2,593 | 61.5%1,595 W · 998 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed San Francisco Giants | 57c | 29.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed San Francisco Giants | 62c | 16.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 3,857 | 42.3%1,632 W · 2,225 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked San Francisco Giants | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 174 | 50.6%88 W · 86 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed San Francisco Giants | 73c | 14.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco GiantsPittsburgh Pirates won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 4.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 5.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 6.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 7.5Over won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco GiantsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.