MLB · resolved market
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44d6bf027f3bf99b476bd9901fd4bfe07f3e0522f443bae175d8c972682f37de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Philadelphia Philliesof Philadelphia Phillies, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,750
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,750 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 20,191$11,509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,682.51 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ea…d96abacked Colorado Rockies | 43c | 18,963$8,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,153.95 | 210 | 40%84 W · 126 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Colorado Rockies | 0c | 10,940$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 2,481$1,389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.72 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Colorado Rockies | 44c | 1,475$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Colorado Rockies | 43c | 740.89$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.58 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Colorado Rockies | 43c | 739.97$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.19 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d4b…198fbacked Colorado Rockies | 44c | 400$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 350$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.5 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Colorado Rockies | 43c | 194.39$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.59 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 180.48$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.22 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca9…37d8backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Colorado Rockies | 41c | 107.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 105.26$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Colorado Rockies | 44c | 105$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Colorado Rockies | 44c | 91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa648…047ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc93…b91dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +6.8wins | +0.22per pick | 52cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Colorado Rockies | 44c | 85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Philadelphia Phillies | 74c | 80$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Colorado Rockies | 43c | 73.29$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.52 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 61.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Colorado Rockies | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Colorado Rockies | 44c | 57.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 43c | 49.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Colorado Rockies | 38c | 48.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Colorado Rockies | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…fe26backed Colorado Rockies | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 42.9%39 W · 52 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…2c46backed Colorado Rockies | 44c | 35.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb1…1002backed Colorado Rockies | 44c | 35.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…cbf2backed Colorado Rockies | 44c | 31.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd107…add5backed Colorado Rockies | 44c | 31.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Colorado Rockies | 44c | 31.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb4…9cb8backed Colorado Rockies | 43c | 23.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 54c | 23.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 444 | 51.1%227 W · 217 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Colorado Rockies | 46c | 23.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Colorado Rockies | 42c | 23.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…e4a2backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-5.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.