MLB · resolved market
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a34bb889e46e247f4673f6a597d805426149875487a264c3de60d29582fa8b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 6,667$3,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,384.32 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 51c | 2,549$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.3 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 50c | 1,982$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.87 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Over | 50c | 1,982$991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.87 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6157…9fb4backed Over | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 51c | 1,460$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.4 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 50c | 1,289$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$649.75 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 51c | 1,114$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.98 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 50c | 985.51$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.76 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Under | 49c | 977.88$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.72 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 947.53$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.45 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 61c | 483$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.27 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 38c | 403$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Under | 51c | 392.26$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.26 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eee…9b2bbacked Over | 51c | 209.99$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8000…3dd3backed Over | 52c | 194.15$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.96 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 49c | 180$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.32 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Under | 49c | 166.44$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.54 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 139.12$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.34 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfc…22b8backed Over | 49c | 133.4$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 49c | 127.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Over | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 49c | 100.35$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Over | 49c | 75.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.48 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 49c | 59.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 58.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.42 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 49c | 53.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 52c | 36.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 49c | 35.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 49c | 30.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 49c | 25.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Over | 45c | 25.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee11…19a9backed Over | 50c | 24.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 47c | 23.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…c50bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5this page
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5Under won
- Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-5.5)Philadelphia Phillies won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia PhilliesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.