World Politics · resolved market
Will Jonas Sulzbach be the next person eliminated from Big Brother Brasil 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9d8d7da7739a6fb3ad3b86c686d528212248ef5154a231f26725169c4b17cb7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,264 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d62…c55fbacked Yes | 78c | 3,411$2,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…c3e5backed Yes | 74c | 669.45$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7c…23c8backed Yes | 77c | 613.56$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.96 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8647…d870backed No | 12c | 499.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 27c | 495.03$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.07 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7035…4c47backed No | 18c | 393$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8f…2d3fbacked Yes | 68c | 358.6$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 30c | 317.67$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.47 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ad…7cc8backed No | 43c | 307.87$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed No | 17c | 278.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d5…b348backed Yes | 64c | 225$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf52f…b2f5backed No | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x545f…66dbbacked Yes | 56c | 171.87$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaa2…563bbacked Yes | 60c | 166.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5b…afe2backed No | 17c | 166.29$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed No | 24c | 159.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2a…4f8bbacked No | 28c | 159.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0469…da0bbacked No | 44c | 159.82$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0423…876dbacked Yes | 57c | 155.93$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc690…ec5bbacked No | 49c | 152.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8385…66b7backed Yes | 61c | 149.05$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc671…b0c7backed No | 23c | 147.32$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…4b27backed Yes | 77c | 145.33$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfffd…9f48backed Yes | 61c | 144.19$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8322…e5e1backed Yes | 62c | 142.58$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb30c…6804backed No | 46c | 137.56$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…1e77backed No | 48c | 125.79$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3843…f8efbacked No | 40c | 117.28$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc47f…dcc3backed Yes | 75c | 117.1$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d5…18d8backed No | 47c | 115.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe012…59e9backed No | 47c | 110.53$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…25d0backed No | 40c | 108.28$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4072…e5abbacked No | 42c | 107.54$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa39c…5130backed No | 49c | 101.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ed…a111backed Yes | 63c | 99.95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60de…60d2backed Yes | 60c | 95.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…ac79backed Yes | 75c | 94.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde5c…7f77backed Yes | 62c | 85.76$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…d4cdbacked No | 45c | 83.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed No | 15c | 81.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 163 | 43.6%71 W · 92 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…b8d6backed No | 35c | 76.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ca1…9326backed Yes | 73c | 75.97$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 17c | 74.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 37c | 73.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4de…1d25backed Yes | 62c | 73.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50eb…ba0cbacked Yes | 66c | 68.82$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x379b…76ddbacked No | 41c | 67.81$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaca…2aa3backed Yes | 74c | 67.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97f5…d878backed Yes | 68c | 64$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…7211backed Yes | 72c | 61.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8162…6ffebacked Yes | 69c | 60.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f3…6019backed Yes | 62c | 57.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…8edfbacked No | 39c | 50.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 58c | 50.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…ecadbacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…6838backed Yes | 71c | 49.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x780f…dfcebacked Yes | 79c | 44.06$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf96…0be8backed No | 40c | 42.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…cb26backed No | 45c | 39.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b5…e53cbacked Yes | 62c | 37.1$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff6b…c679backed No | 36c | 36.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a3…9352backed Yes | 58c | 33.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d0…eebfbacked No | 43c | 33.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x661a…ddc7backed Yes | 63c | 33.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 46c | 32.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acb…1a41backed Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e62…d013backed Yes | 77c | 27.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45b…9da4backed Yes | 78c | 26.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 55c | 23.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1336…2841backed Yes | 64c | 21.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdac…5a3dbacked Yes | 62c | 20.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…fdc4backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd865…4778backed Yes | 75c | 19.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ce…4d72backed Yes | 65c | 16.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6dc…4fe3backed Yes | 74c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jonas Sulzbach be the next person eliminated from Big Brother Brasil 26?this page
- Will Gabriela Saporito be the next person eliminated from Big Brother Brasil 26?No won
- Will Juliano Floss be the next person eliminated from Big Brother Brasil 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.