World Politics · resolved market
Will Juliano Floss be the next person eliminated from Big Brother Brasil 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24220978e6dc102abdbc768999d1684823530002428d98d01b135d21f509dd76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,255 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x31db…0b29backed Yes | 35c | 1,092$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cf…a08abacked Yes | 38c | 703.76$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 10c | 385.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | +9.2wins | +0.12per pick | 14cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0960…5adcbacked Yes | 57c | 352.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x249b…25d0backed Yes | 44c | 304.8$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9e…6838backed Yes | 20c | 274.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d4…86e3backed Yes | 49c | 229$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2a…4f8bbacked Yes | 33c | 219.63$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec5b…aff2backed No | 70c | 214.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf52f…b2f5backed Yes | 25c | 214.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf12…5ff2backed Yes | 49c | 205.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8647…d870backed Yes | 13c | 199.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d5…b348backed Yes | 30c | 199.97$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc671…b0c7backed Yes | 31c | 179.94$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd64b…873cbacked Yes | 23c | 176.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x545f…66dbbacked No | 56c | 158.85$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be4…fa23backed No | 62c | 148.52$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 38c | 137.91$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0469…da0bbacked Yes | 42c | 132.21$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced7…4c4abacked Yes | 51c | 116.29$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 101.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 463 | 29.4%136 W · 327 L | -69.9wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…6c27backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e3…a75ebacked Yes | 49c | 90.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…cb26backed Yes | 45c | 70.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c13…a814backed Yes | 73c | 68.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2294…24babacked Yes | 43c | 61.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398d…b8d6backed Yes | 41c | 60.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 58c | 55.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2301…7fa8backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…d91dbacked No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cff…6aefbacked Yes | 43c | 46.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4c…c7e6backed Yes | 38c | 45.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…6e83backed Yes | 49c | 44.47$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…e4dbbacked Yes | 43c | 44.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…a6e8backed Yes | 43c | 40.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67b0…1a39backed Yes | 43c | 40.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x166f…1826backed Yes | 43c | 39.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde8f…e428backed Yes | 49c | 36.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…93a4backed Yes | 40c | 33.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 61c | 32.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 68c | 31.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 47c | 27.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 153 | 56.2%86 W · 67 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a3…9352backed No | 59c | 21.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 59c | 19.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Juliano Floss be the next person eliminated from Big Brother Brasil 26?this page
- Will Gabriela Saporito be the next person eliminated from Big Brother Brasil 26?No won
- Will Jonas Sulzbach be the next person eliminated from Big Brother Brasil 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.