Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa20f36e5074e3c3028336444244992a7236717c047f75240189b3317a9a4e331
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,659
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,659 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 51c | 684.6$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 478.99$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.53 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…0ab4backed No | 76c | 394.08$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.69 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 62c | 389.16$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.12 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 35c | 303.68$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.4 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…931abacked No | 68c | 302.39$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.3 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 32c | 277.78$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.6 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 30c | 265.14$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.6 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 259.78$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 10c | 237.19$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.67 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31df…6f1abacked Yes | 67c | 235.33$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 232.6$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.56 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 214.95$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked Yes | 69c | 200$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.35 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 17c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 11c | 185$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.95 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 27c | 181.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.27 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 53c | 167.13$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.37 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 27c | 165.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.85 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 24c | 164.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.89 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 160.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.8 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 66c | 156$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.54 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…446cbacked Yes | 19c | 153.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.74 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 52c | 152.54$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 40c | 149.73$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.13 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66c2…85f4backed Yes | 11c | 133.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.54 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 25c | 120.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.51 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…322fbacked Yes | 28c | 115.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.89 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 49c | 110.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 66c | 109.16$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 34c | 105$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.42 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 35c | 104$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.85 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 95.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.19 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdc23…d4cbbacked Yes | 65c | 92.69$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 20c | 90.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.07 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x894f…9ebebacked No | 38c | 90.46$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 38c | 86.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 67c | 81.74$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.41 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…6aa1backed Yes | 45c | 81$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x574c…8a65backed Yes | 37c | 80.61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 20c | 78.36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 78.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 65c | 77.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2018…640abacked Yes | 39c | 77.53$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 33c | 76.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.01 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 21c | 70.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.06 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 43c | 70$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.2 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 39c | 68.82$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 70c | 67.07$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.11 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d80…493fbacked Yes | 36c | 59.66$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 38c | 55.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed No | 28c | 53.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 29c | 53.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 47c | 53.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a6…703dbacked Yes | 54c | 51.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.18 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x707c…b932backed No | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 54c | 46.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 58c | 41.39$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5194…1dcabacked No | 68c | 41.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…f88dbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 41c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…5cb9backed Yes | 55c | 32.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 65c | 30.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x56a4…43dfbacked Yes | 40c | 30.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfa…2723backed No | 62c | 29.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed No | 62c | 27.26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 67c | 26.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdccd…2d4bbacked Yes | 41c | 25.85$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 54c | 24.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…701ebacked No | 57c | 24.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed93…037cbacked Yes | 47c | 23.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…42a2backed Yes | 52c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 51c | 22.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 68c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe82…6611backed Yes | 67c | 19.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 62c | 18.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 72c | 17.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…a71bbacked No | 64c | 17.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 78c | 15.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.