Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c08a161a1d30649ecb43a4c2061014b831fa6a067cb2563f4b29ff0a5d7fb05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,239
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,239 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,408$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c02…ba96backed Yes | 12c | 711.21$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.24 | 83 | 41%34 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b39…eae4backed Yes | 7c | 586.42$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.12 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.0wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 2c | 491.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 7c | 421.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 413.9$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed Yes | 5c | 388.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 3c | 379.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed Yes | 7c | 322.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 5c | 301.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3620…f733backed Yes | 6c | 282.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 4c | 279.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 24c | 215.55$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 5c | 210.68$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 6c | 161.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4058…9dc6backed Yes | 14c | 133$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 10c | 122.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked Yes | 12c | 122.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 97.87$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6141…7688backed Yes | 50c | 60.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 64c | 56.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 45.08$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…bb68backed Yes | 27c | 38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 67c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 70c | 28.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 72c | 19.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.59 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca9…8952backed No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5d…1f93backed No | 73c | 16.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.