Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x817982294c1cb38c6ec5cdd4dc5585a9a57a6d54d80132c186fdfed9ddc54024
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,622
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,622 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc681…6c05backed Yes | 0c | 4,061$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed Yes | 18c | 551.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f48…7825backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 14.2%15 W · 91 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 486.46$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.49 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 8c | 482.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 394.14$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 371.57$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 10c | 364.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.06 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 79c | 356.73$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.43 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…747bbacked Yes | 9c | 273.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +208%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 13c | 269.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.41 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 13c | 263.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.61 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 6c | 245$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 9c | 213.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 9c | 212$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 13c | 208.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 11c | 199.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74e7…3de8backed Yes | 10c | 194.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…322fbacked Yes | 13c | 194.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 190.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd85a…a650backed Yes | 11c | 176.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7088…0086backed Yes | 9c | 173$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 95 | 34.7%33 W · 62 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 6c | 167.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 8c | 166.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 73 | 9.6%7 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 31c | 162$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 19c | 158.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 11c | 147.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 144.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 15c | 136.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5194…1dcabacked Yes | 16c | 131.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 33 | 6.1%2 W · 31 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 126.94$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 13c | 125.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 16c | 124.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 16c | 122.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 23c | 122.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a6…703dbacked Yes | 30c | 118.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9e…5421backed Yes | 15c | 111$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 11c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked Yes | 10c | 103.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 12c | 102.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 13c | 99.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 17c | 98.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 16c | 95.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 71c | 84.22$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 69c | 80.55$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 73c | 59.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 26c | 54.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed No | 80c | 53.86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 70c | 35.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcc…bf17backed Yes | 46c | 22.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 46cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 65c | 22.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.