Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3311a9adae1ce60352aa038f71efe7e9c6cbedede6a0e5f45d7f9398bba81fd0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,020 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 15c | 783.92$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.08 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 685.32$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.9 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 320.45$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.83 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 78c | 273.87$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 246.55$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.86 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 26c | 213.26$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 30c | 210.47$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 24c | 206.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…931abacked Yes | 39c | 200.09$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.1 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 193.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 184.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 184.32$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.01 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 67c | 166.31$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.08 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 19c | 165.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 71c | 151.98$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed No | 74c | 135.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.85 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 22c | 130.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 75c | 123.11$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 114.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4e…1f10backed No | 78c | 111.55$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 70 | 70%49 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 48c | 105.69$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.07 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 101$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 20c | 100.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 27c | 100.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed Yes | 29c | 98.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.65 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 34c | 94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 33c | 90.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 26c | 89.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 77c | 89.1$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 14c | 88.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…c02abacked No | 74c | 87.4$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 27c | 86.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 21c | 82.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 80.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 70c | 80$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 23c | 78.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 26c | 69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 78c | 67.84$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302c…108abacked Yes | 40c | 62.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc681…6c05backed Yes | 24c | 61.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed No | 70c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa29d…747bbacked Yes | 23c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +208%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 52.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 28c | 50.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5112…fb73backed Yes | 28c | 49.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 37c | 45.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…334ebacked Yes | 25c | 45.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 34c | 44.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 28c | 44.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 76c | 42.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…e84fbacked Yes | 27c | 40.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eba…eb58backed Yes | 27c | 40.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x678d…bce9backed No | 74c | 40.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 29c | 40.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…f88dbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 30c | 39.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…7900backed Yes | 28c | 38.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 35c | 38.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 32c | 37.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05a0…636abacked No | 62c | 37.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda65…c7aebacked Yes | 32c | 36.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ef…539bbacked No | 70c | 36.27$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 31c | 35.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf153…bad1backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x153d…2580backed No | 77c | 29.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…e799backed No | 63c | 29.71$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 68c | 29.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 65c | 29.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd3…5e40backed No | 74c | 27.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 62c | 27.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 73c | 26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e87…5eb7backed No | 62c | 25.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 76c | 21.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f35…fcdbbacked No | 74c | 20.91$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 75c | 19.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 56c | 19.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 18.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 72c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…747ebacked No | 77c | 14.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.41 | 26 | 84.6%22 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.16per pick | 68cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a00…929bbacked No | 74c | 14.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6665…601dbacked No | 70c | 14.68$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 56°F or higher on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 40-41°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.