NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef3c904766f49b9c4d6df207379bdd39940cd339d1836019bc8714e1cb78181a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mavericksof Lakers, Mavericks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,599
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Lakers | 39c | 3,611$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.77 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Lakers | 40c | 2,393$963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.18 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…6312backed Mavericks | 58c | 1,014$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.81 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Lakers | 41c | 739.83$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.98 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…3234backed Mavericks | 58c | 682.36$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.59 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…eef4backed Lakers | 44c | 440.89$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.26 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -9.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Lakers | 42c | 399.36$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.73 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Lakers | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mavericks | 64c | 293.53$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.06 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Mavericks | 62c | 270.86$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.11 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Mavericks | 61c | 269.72$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.07 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Mavericks | 61c | 269.64$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Mavericks | 61c | 269.64$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 445 | 51.2%228 W · 217 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Mavericks | 61c | 269.64$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Mavericks | 61c | 269.64$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Mavericks | 61c | 269.64$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 298 | 49.3%147 W · 151 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8a…02acbacked Mavericks | 61c | 266.14$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.63 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Mavericks | 61c | 260.82$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.09 | 148 | 52.7%78 W · 70 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Mavericks | 56c | 250.38$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.53 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Mavericks | 56c | 243.56$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.17 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Mavericks | 58c | 236.43$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.99 | 289 | 49.1%142 W · 147 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Lakers | 55c | 209.78$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.38 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Mavericks | 67c | 199.3$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.57 | 349 | 53%185 W · 164 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Mavericks | 74c | 193.1$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.26 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Lakers | 44c | 174.9$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.96 | 213 | 50.7%108 W · 105 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…9ef8backed Mavericks | 58c | 168.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 285 | 54.7%156 W · 129 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…aec1backed Mavericks | 60c | 166.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.63 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Mavericks | 60c | 165.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 516 | 47.5%245 W · 271 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Lakers | 42c | 163.01$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.93 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…46e4backed Mavericks | 60c | 161.38$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.75 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Mavericks | 45c | 128.4$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.62 | 554 | 44.4%246 W · 308 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Mavericks | 62c | 99.69$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.75 | 127 | 52.8%67 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Mavericks | 62c | 99.62$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 611 | 51.4%314 W · 297 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Mavericks | 72c | 98.51$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Mavericks | 60c | 87.82$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 350 | 52.6%184 W · 166 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Mavericks | 61c | 84.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 368 | 52.2%192 W · 176 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Mavericks | 60c | 66.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 173 | 50.3%87 W · 86 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Mavericks | 45c | 57.05$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.38 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Lakers | 32c | 43.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Mavericks | 56c | 43.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.87 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Mavericks | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Mavericks | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 570 | 51.9%296 W · 274 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ec5…5923backed Mavericks | 61c | 40.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…f0d0backed Lakers | 41c | 34.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.28per pick | 55cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85d9…c5a6backed Mavericks | 58c | 33.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Lakers | 44c | 28.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…c734backed Mavericks | 59c | 27.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Mavericks | 59c | 23.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 717 | 52%373 W · 344 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc877…05b4backed Mavericks | 46c | 23.22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Mavericks | 56c | 19.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 389 | 47.6%185 W · 204 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed Mavericks | 73c | 16.43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Mavericks | 73c | 16.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 423 | 52.5%222 W · 201 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Mavericks | 77c | 14.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 62 | 74.2%46 W · 16 L | +11.3wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Mavericks | 80c | 13.05$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.63 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Mavericks | 79c | 13.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.72 | 414 | 49.3%204 W · 210 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Mavericks | 79c | 13.02$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.72 | 592 | 50.2%297 W · 295 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)this page
- Austin Reaves: Assists O/U 7.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Points O/U 28.5No won
- Austin Reaves: Rebounds O/U 4.5No won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 23.5Yes won
- Cooper Flagg: Points O/U 24.5Yes won
- Jake LaRavia: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Lakers vs. MavericksMavericks won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 231.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 233.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 234.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 235.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 244.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 246.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 250.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 254.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 258.5Over won
- LeBron James: Assists O/U 8.5Yes won
- LeBron James: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Lakers (-5.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Lakers (-6.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-12.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Mavericks (-3.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-4.5)Mavericks won
- Spread: Mavericks (-6.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Mavericks (-8.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.